A Warmer Day Coming, Then Maybe SnowJanuary 26th, 2014 at 10:24 am by Jeff Edmondson WAVY under Weather
We are in a transition day today with sunshine and temperatures in the 30s. We will start to feel the warmer air by tomorrow as a low pressure center bringing a blizzard to the north will swing by to our north.
Southwest winds ahead of the cold front in West Virginia tomorrow will boost our temps back to the 40s and lower 50s. While the warm front and the low will not do anything to our weather, the cold front will.
The cold front is expected to move in late tomorrow which may bring in a chance for a light rain/snow mix. No accumulations are expected at this time. What is eventually going to happen is that the front will stall offshore. Having that happen will increase our chances for snow next week.
Future Trak is painting a cold and snowy picture which would allow snow. Seeing a band set up like this could bring several inches of snow for a small thin strip in our region.
The latest models paint around 4-6″ of snow in that band. (Dark Blue Area on below map) This includes the OBX.
The latest update brings extreme totals to the OBX. 8.2″ is for Kill Devil Hills, 9.1″ for Manteo. I also added Chesapeake and VB in this view to show you the difference. in amounts.
Should we believe the picture above and begin to prepare? Not so fast…The models are not agreeing right now with this storm. That keeps my confidence low in saying exactly what will happen as we are still in a large window of uncertainty. The models can still change in these ways:
- The area of moisture moves further north in to the cold air sector adding more snow to include the Hampton Roads cities. This would put the OBX in the rain only sector.
- Stronger North winds dry out the moisture and the storm stays more offshore.
- Light snow may happen (2-3″ at most), but it will be a mostly rain event assuming the whole thing weakens.
- Nothing Changes and Future Trak is nailing it.
The GFS, NAM, NavyGEM, and Euro all have a chance for snow somewhere.
GFS: The GFS/SREF have the most, the Navy has the least. The GFS 6Z has 6+ inches for Elizabeth City, NC. The NAM has 1 inch.
NAM: For Norfolk the latest NAM now has us with 1″, and Elizabeth City at 6″.
SREF: First of all, I believe the SREF did the best job 2 and 3 days out last weekend looking at the snow potential. Here we are again 2-3 days out and the SREF has more snow in to VA and Rain for the OBX. Snow totals are 2-5″ across the Peninsula and Southside. (This is the outlier model with snow that far north)
Tracking this storm is very difficult, the last snow event was relativity easy as the storm moves across our area. This time we are talking rain/snow lines and very precise forecasts. What you hear today may not be what you hear tomorrow. We are going to need to keep a close eye on the storm, Tiffany Savona will be in tonight with updates.
Feel free to post your comments and questions below and I will get back to you as soon as I can.
Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson