A Warmer Day Coming, Then Maybe Snow

January 26th, 2014 at 10:24 am by under Weather

We are in a transition day today with sunshine and temperatures in the 30s. We will start to feel the warmer air by tomorrow as a low pressure center bringing a blizzard to the north will swing by to our north.

Monday's Setup

Monday’s Setup

Southwest winds ahead of the cold front in West Virginia tomorrow will boost our temps back to the 40s and lower 50s. While the warm front and the low will not do anything to our weather, the cold front will.

The cold front is expected to move in late tomorrow which may bring in a chance for a light rain/snow mix. No accumulations are expected at this time. What is eventually going to happen is that the front will stall offshore. Having that happen will increase our chances for snow next week.

Future Trak Tuesday @ pm

Future Trak Tuesday @ 6pm

Future Trak @ 6am Wednesday

Future Trak @ 6am Wednesday

Future Trak is painting a cold and snowy picture which would allow snow. Seeing a band set up like this could bring several inches of snow for a small thin strip in our region.

The latest models paint around 4-6″ of snow in that band. (Dark Blue Area on below map) This includes the OBX.

Snow Estimates

Snow Estimates 7AM Future Trak

Future Trak 10am Update

Future Trak 10am Update

The latest update brings extreme totals to the OBX. 8.2″ is for Kill Devil Hills, 9.1″ for Manteo. I also added Chesapeake and VB in this view to show you the difference. in amounts.

Should we believe the picture above and begin to prepare? Not so fast…The models are not agreeing right now with this storm. That keeps my confidence low in saying exactly what will happen as we are still in a large window of uncertainty. The models can still change in these ways:

  1. The area of moisture moves further north in to the cold air sector adding more snow to include the Hampton Roads cities. This would put the OBX in the rain only sector.
  2. Stronger North winds dry out the moisture and the storm stays more offshore.
  3. Light snow may happen (2-3″ at most), but it will be a mostly rain event assuming the whole thing weakens.
  4. Nothing Changes and Future Trak is nailing it.

Model Analysis:

The GFS, NAM, NavyGEM, and Euro all have a chance for snow somewhere.

GFS: The GFS/SREF have the most, the Navy has the least. The GFS 6Z has 6+ inches for Elizabeth City, NC. The NAM has 1 inch.

NAM: For Norfolk the latest NAM now has us with 1″, and Elizabeth City at 6″.

SREF: First of all, I believe the SREF did the best job 2 and 3 days out last weekend looking at the snow potential. Here we are again 2-3 days out and the SREF has more snow in to VA and Rain for the OBX. Snow totals are 2-5″ across the Peninsula and Southside. (This is the outlier model with snow that far north)

Bread & Milk Index

Bread & Milk Index is a 3 out of 5! It wouldn’t hurt to do the shopping today or tomorrow.

Tracking this storm is very difficult, the last snow event was relativity easy as the storm moves across our area. This time we are talking rain/snow lines and very precise forecasts. What you hear today may not be what you hear tomorrow. We are going to need to keep a close eye on the storm, Tiffany Savona will be in tonight with updates.

Feel free to post your comments and questions below and I will get back to you as soon as I can.

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson

21 Responses to “A Warmer Day Coming, Then Maybe Snow”

  1. Amy Capehart says:

    I saw a forecast from weather underground and it is calling for snow not this coming week but the week after. Any thoughts?

    1. Jeff Edmondson WAVY says:

      Still too far out in model land to know. This storm I am talking about here is still 3 days away and there is a good amount of uncertainty.

  2. David says:

    Fingers crossed for it to trend towards more snow for the Southside! Would hate to lose out on a big snow to the Outer Banks… How often does that happen?

    1. Jeff Edmondson WAVY says:

      Definitely not very often, something to watch.

  3. Jack Bizzell says:

    So is there a chance of the middle peninsula getting a fair amount of snow?

    1. Jeff Edmondson WAVY says:

      We need to get that moisture all the way there. Some of the morning models said it could happen. Others didn’t, so keep an eye for updates.

  4. Jasko says:

    So, if the models change could newport news see any big snow?

    1. Jeff Edmondson WAVY says:

      Yes, if the models trend the moisture further north then Newport News can see snow from this. Stay tuned…

  5. Cliff says:

    Jeff,
    What are your current expectations with this system? I know its early. Seems the model runs have been very inconsistent.

    1. Jeff Edmondson WAVY says:

      Cliff, basically what I said above. Since the models are all over the place I’m still waiting for some more concrete proof that we are or are not going to see snow.

  6. Nicole says:

    So this could be happening for this week?

    1. Jeff Edmondson WAVY says:

      Exactly.

  7. Billy says:

    Thanks for being upfront about the storm. You have a sometimes thankless job – know your hard work is appreciated.

    I know the models are going back and forth on this one, what would you say is the chance that it could switch back and the southside could get a considerable amount?

  8. Kris says:

    I am from OHIO and am looking forward to the snow. I live in the Surry/Waverly area what do you think it will be like for us?

  9. Logan says:

    So….basically you are saying you have NO IDEA what will happen. Might snow, might not. Might rain, might not. Just two days out. You guys get PAID for this ?!?! :D

  10. Ed Obermeyer says:

    Well Jeff, you know what the surfers want to know…does this mean surf? It sure looks like a swell builder to me man! See you in the water bro!

  11. Leona says:

    Wxrisk is forecasting that the snow shield is increasing and has steady predictions of 12+ inches in the Hampton roads area. Any likelihood that this independent forecast will stick ? Thx

  12. Matt says:

    So, I just saw the 18z GFS. That sure escalated quickly.

  13. [...] when it comes to our Tuesday/Wednesday possible snow event. Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson wrote a great blog this morning showing the difference in potential snow totals across the region. My blog is going to talk more [...]

  14. Tyreq Camms says:

    I want snow for Newport News mr.jeff and your city lol lets see if we get it , btw I like how youre straight forward witht he models and you don’t beat around the busch with the stuff !

  15. destiny says:

    You guys do a great job I really hope to see a lot of snow out of this at least some maybe two or more inches what’s the chance of that here in suffolk

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