Midday Model Update

January 21st, 2014 at 1:37 pm by under Weather

This is a quick update from this morning’s weather blog.  The models have been trending with some lower amounts lately, but we are still expecting snow in the region.  The latest satellite and radar shows snow already forming up near the Tappahannock area.  This is a small band that has formed way out ahead of the main batch.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Folks have been doubting the snow due to the warm temperatures.  We’ve managed to get up into the 50s early this afternoon.  However, the low is starting to push offshore and the winds are increasing from the north.  We dropped from 54 here at the TV station in Portsmouth to 48 degrees, and we are still dropping.  This is also in-line with what some of the models had earlier.  I just didn’t believe that we’d hit the mid 50s.  So don’t count out the snow just based on temperatures.  However, as I mentioned the models have come in a little drier since this morning.  The raw NAM model went from about 2-3″ in Hampton Roads down to about 1″ in its latest run.  So I’ve lowered the forecast totals a bit. Here’s the latest forecast:

Latest Snow Forecast

Latest Snow Forecast

The National Weather Service still has the higher amounts.  So I’m keeping that in-mind.  I have seen the models flip-flop during these situations.  So I didn’t go too crazy with my midday update.   Our Future Trak model still has quite a bit of snow in the region this evening.  Here is the updated view for 6 pm:

Future Trak (6pm)

Future Trak (6pm)

You can see the snow/rain mix in Hampton Roads.  If this comes in during that time, then it will affect the evening commute.  It has more widespread snow by 8pm:

Future Trak (8pm)

Future Trak (8pm)

The snow keeps going from 8pm until 3am and pushes to the east.  It looks to me like it will be a bit more scattered until midnight-3am.  That’s when there will be one last line of snow moving through.  We are still likely to dry out after that.

Again, this is a quick update from the earlier blog.  We’ll have a big update this evening.  Don Slater and Tiffany Savona will be in at 4pm on WAVY-TV.  We’ll also try and do a blog update again later today.  Thanks for reading!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

4 Responses to “Midday Model Update”

  1. Keith says:

    Jeremy,
    With the warm temps yesterday and this morning I would imagine some of the first snow will melt right away. Do you think when the temp drops into the teens tomorrow morning this melted snow will turn to ice or does the ground hold enough heat to keep it as water? If it does turn to ice I don’t think planning on going into work late tomorrow would be much safer since its not going to get above freezing.

    Keith.

  2. Keisha says:

    Thanks for keeping us updated!

  3. Gary says:

    Is there anyway to make the graphic pictures any larger?

  4. Mark says:

    I thought you knew better than to model hug Jeremy. Anyways your being pretty brave lowering amounts especially since from what I’m seeing that Eastern VA especially SE VA is going be getting hammered later on tonight when temps are colder, snow ratios are higher and the wind. I guess better to under guess than to over guess and bust lol. Anyways let’s hope we get hit with some decent snow tonight.

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