Calm Before The SnowJanuary 21st, 2014 at 8:06 am by Jeremy Wheeler under Weather
Things are ramping up for this upcoming event. There is a very high chance for accumulating snow in the region. In fact I put my newly developed WAVY snow tracker up to 100% for Hampton Roads. How bout that snow lovers? It’s hard to believe that we were just in the 60s yesterday, and by tomorrow we’ll start with temperatures in the teens. Let’s talk about it.
The setup is that we have a developing area of low pressure to our west with a strong cold front extending from its center southward.
There is a large trough in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Plus, there is some very cold air sitting just north of our region. Snow was already falling across the Ohio River Valley and the Appalachians.
As the low moves east, a thin line of rain and a thick area of snow will push southeast. Winds will pick up out of the northeast today as the low intensifies. We’ll see clouds increase and some rain will enter the region as we head into the afternoon. By 3 pm we’re likely to have a rain/snow mix up towards the Northern Neck and towards Richmond. By 6 pm those areas will see snow. We’ll see snow reach down into the Hampton Roads Metro by 6pm.
Snow will increase through the later evening. By 10-11pm. Almost the entire area will see at least some type of snow (light/moderate/heavy).
The snow will keep going until about 3-4 am. Then it will push out. By that time temperatures will drop down to the mid-teens. Winds will be blowing out of the north/northeast at 15-25mph with gusts up to 40mph. Wind chills will be in the negatives in the morning. Snow is likely to be on the ground and many roads. So there will likely be delays and cancellations for tomorrow. Temperatures will not allow for melting all day Wednesday. So whatever sticks will stay.
In total we are now expecting 4-8″ of snow north of the metro. That includes the Northern Neck, Accomack county, and the Middle Peninsula. We are calling for 2-4″ for the entire Peninsula and Southside. I think we’ll see 1-2″ for northeast North Carolina, but it may be closer to an inch. Here’s the latest forecast map:
The National Weather Service has increase their totals as have the models. So I have increased my forecast as well. I might increase it more for the midday update. Now all of our Virginia cities/counties are under a Winter Storm Warning. A Winter Weather Advisory is in place for northeast North Carolina through tomorrow morning.
Through the day Wednesday winds will stay strong. They will be out of the north/northwest at 20-30mph with gusts up to 40mph. So high temperatures will only get into the low 20s. Wind chills will be in the single digits even in the afternoon. After a few flurries in the morning, we’ll see partly cloudy skies. Winds will taper off by the evening. We’ll bottom out in the teens again Thursday morning, but the winds will be very light. Highs on Thursday will be in the low/mid 30s. Then we’ll have another shot at cold air on Thursday, but that cold front looks dry at this time.
While we will see some strong winds for a good 6-10 hours, we are not expecting anything more than some nuisance tidal flooding. I think the reason will be due to the short duration of the strongest winds. We are actually near full moon. So I am a bit surprised that minor tidal flooding isn’t forecast. Either way here is a link to the latest tide forecasts. NWS Tide forecasts.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler