A Messy Tuesday Evening Commute

January 20th, 2014 at 6:03 pm by under Weather

Well…the afternoon computer models are in and not much has changed in the overall thinking with this storm system. The highest totals will likely still remain north of the metro, across the Middle Peninsula, Northern Neck and Eastern Shore. These northern areas will see the colder air move in sooner than others. The National Weather Service has issued Winter Storm Warnings (pink) and Winter Storm Watches (blue) for some parts of the region. The watch area has now been expanded to include all of Southside Virginia.

Winter Weather  Alerts

Winter Weather Alerts

One change in the computer models is the timing of the cold air. It looks like the cold air will arrive a few hours later than what was expected earlier. This means that we will see a wide range in high temperatures. It also means that some of the precipitation may start out as rain before changing over to snow. This area of low pressure is going to have a lot of energy to work with, so the changover from rain to snow will be very quick. Our latest computer model has this solution at 3 PM. If we do see rain first, it will only be for a short amount of time.

Future Trak at 3 PM Tuesday

Future Trak at 3 PM Tuesday

Notice that the snow becomes more widespread by 7 PM. If possible, you may want to leave work a few hours early to avoid problems on the roads.

Future Trak at 7 PM Tuesday

Future Trak at 7 PM Tuesday

Highs temperatures across the Northern Neck, Middle Peninsula and Eastern Shore will only be in the mid to upper 30s. The Peninsula should see highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Southside will see highs in the mid to upper 40s with lower 50s possible across North Carolina. Yes the ground will still be warm especially after highs in the 60s today. But I think the snow will overcome this and accumulate once it starts falling. Keep in mind that temperatures will be dropping throughout the day and should dip below freezing after dark for most areas.

Here is the latest thinking in regards to potential snowfall totals tomorrow.

Tuesday Potential Snow Totals

Tuesday Potential Snow Totals

Here are some times on when you can expect the snow to move into your area.

Snow Begins:

Northern Neck, Middle Peninsula, Eastern Shore: Between 1-3 PM
Peninsula: 3-5 PM
Southside: 5-7PM (*Notice that Virginia Beach could see slightly higher totals with bay effect show showers late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning)
North Carolina: After 7 PM

The snow is going to create lots of problems on the roads, especially since it will be hitting the metro areas around drive time. We are also concerned about travel early Wednesday morning because any snow that accumulates will freeze overnight and create slippery roads. Temperatures are going to be in the teens with wind chill values at or below 0 degrees Wednesday morning. We are not expecting the snow to melt since temperatures are going to stay well below freezing all day on Wednesday.

Meteorologist Don Slater will have another update on WAVY News 10 at 11. Meteorologist Jeremy Wheeler will start you off Tuesday morning on WAVY News 10 starting at 4:30 AM. Stay tuned to wavy.com for more updates.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

15 Responses to “A Messy Tuesday Evening Commute”

  1. lynn says:

    It is 54 degrees outside with sunshine furthermore the wind is from the east. The radar picture shows the precipitation moving NORTH. Time to let the hopes of snow go once again people. Thanks Jeremy We know you tried

    1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

      Remember Lynn. 2 weeks ago we hit 70 before the deep freeze. It was 70+ one day, then we saw highs in the teens and 20s after 2 days. So it is possible. Jeremy

      1. Toya says:

        I think you’re on target Jeremy, off to the store with me :0)

    2. Karen says:

      Lynn seems like a real stick in the mud. Also, capitalize your own name for God’s sake.

  2. Danny says:

    Jeremy, the radar recently showed a massive hole in the precipitation above VA are the totals still accurate?

    1. Danny says:

      I am working up here in Kilmarnock and have been tuned into wavy to check the status of the “snow” quite frequently. I notice the storm front moving towards us and as it approaches Virginia, it looks as though the precipitation appears to be drying up in our path. I was curious if the accumulation totals are still projected to be the same or if there are going to be adjusted?

  3. [...] Blog: A messy Tuesday evening commute [...]

  4. Michael says:

    The only flake within 50 miles of our area is Andy Fox!

  5. Pam says:

    Hopefully it will go around us, I know that is not what the kids want, but driving to work and home will be a mess. Seems way to nice out there for this weather to be here today! Jeremy, do you think we will see more than a inch in Chesapeake?

  6. Caitlin says:

    That’s the most polite burn I’ve ever seen, Jeremy lol

  7. Tara says:

    Bring on the snow! :)

  8. Benjamin Maltalbotits says:

    I formerly recognize the weather in this station. Can’t be vengeful about the outcome if weatherman says no ground. Upon the urgency, we all depend on white toast for all. Thanks Jeremy.

  9. Kim says:

    It isn’t sunny anymore. Looks like snow is on it’s way!

  10. mark says:

    I am amazed when the untrained can stick their head out of the door and predict the weather better than a satellite interpreted by an educated and seasoned meteorologist. Thanks Lynn we know you tried.

  11. LASHONDA says:


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