Models Showing Better Snow Chances For Hampton RoadsJanuary 19th, 2014 at 9:04 pm by Tiffany Savona WAVY under Weather
We often talk about computer models changing their solution. We also monitor which way a computer model trends after an update. Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson wrote a blog this morning saying how the computer models had backed off on the potential snow totals for Tuesday. Well…all of the computer models have trended wetter with the afternoon update. This means snow totals could be higher across Hampton Roads and North Carolina. The models now have the area of low pressure developing over Hampton Roads before moving offshore. The storm will be stronger than previously advertised. The arctic front will move in early Tuesday morning, so we should start off dry. Then by 12 PM, snow showers develop across the Northern Neck.
Much colder air will be moving in behind this front. So if any of the precipitation starts out as rain, it will quickly change over to all snow. This storm will have a decent amount of moisture to work with and all of the moisture is going to lag behind the front. That allows the cold air to move in before the bulk of the precipitation moves through the region. This kind of setup is key if you want to see snow. The snow continues to push south and becomes more widespread during the afternoon hours. It looks like we could see a messy Tuesday evening commute.
Temperatures are going to be falling throughout the day and we should be down below the freezing mark by sunset. With temperatures below freezing, the snow will stick and accumulate. Here is my latest thinking on potential snowfall totals. My totals are basically a blend of several computer models, but I did hedge toward the wetter solution, since that is the way the models have been trending tonight. Keep in mind, that the EURO is now the outlier since it is the drier solution. The NAM, GFS and SREF all came in with higher totals this afternoon. If the models continue to trend wetter tonight, then we may need to bump up these totals even more.
The highest totals look to be along the Eastern Shore and Northern Neck. This map will likely change over the next 24-48 hours as we get new model data into the weather center. Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson will have an updated forecast on WAVY News 10 starting at 4:30 AM. Stay tuned!
-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona