Models And The MixJanuary 16th, 2014 at 8:47 am by Jeremy Wheeler under Weather
There is a rain/snow mix in the region this morning. It is slowly edging into Hampton Roads.
Light snow has already fallen from Emporia to Williamsburg to Kilmarnick. However, as the precipitation moves east, it will encounter some milder temperatures. Temperatures this morning were in the upper 30s through most of the region. Don, my weather watcher in Toano, mentioned that he had a light dusting over some grassy areas, but then it melted. That will be the case as the ground and air temperatures are above freezing. Some of the models did show this band moving in, but many of the models dried up the line before it was supposed to move into Hampton Roads…I mean Coastal Virginia. Our Future Trak model had the precipitation surviving, but the RPM model dried it up into just a few flurries. I think what happened was that the models underestimated the available moisture that was left near the ground with all of the recent rain. There is standing water in many areas. The cold front has actually been offshore (east of us) all morning. However, a pocket of upper level energy has hung back and caused the precipitation to occur behind it.
As we go into the midday and afternoon high pressure will push in from the west. This will clear us out. Despite temperatures in the upper 30s this morning, we’ll only see highs in the low/mid 40s. Winds will be out of the north at 10-15mph with gusts up to 25mph. It will feel like it’s in the 20s at times with the winds chills.
Tonight we’ll continue the clearing. Lows will drop to the low 30s with some upper 20s inland. Then tomorrow we’ll see partly sunny skies. Highs will rise to near 50 with lighter winds. So it will be a pretty nice January day. From Friday night into Saturday there will be another cold front that will push into the region. Moisture looks limited, but stay tuned for updates. At this time I’m thinking we’ll see a few flurries. Could be a bit more if this morning is an indicator of how the models are handling recent moisture. Either way we will be colder on Saturday. Highs will be in the upper 30s. We’ll rise to the mid 40s on Sunday. We could see a few flurries again in the morning. Another system will impact the region by the middle of next week. It’s still early, but that may be one to watch. Stay tuned!
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler