Soggy Tuesday

January 14th, 2014 at 8:57 am by under Weather

It was a pretty wet commute this morning.  Luckily the rain wasn’t too heavy for most folks.  We had a couple tenths of an inch fall since overnight.  Scattered to occasional showers were still falling through the mid morning.

Super Doppler 10

Super Doppler 10

There were some downpours over the Outer Banks and parts of northeast North Carolina, but there were no thunderstorms.  The area has a couple of weather systems that will affect it today.  First off,  there is a stationary front in the region.

2 Fronts

2 Fronts

We are on the warm side of the front.  So temperatures started off in the 50s.  There is a long cold front moving east through the Tennessee River Valley today.  That system will push into our area late in the day.  This will help to dry us out, but it won’t really cool things down until tonight.  Rain is forecast to linger until at least 1pm.

Future Trak (1PM)

Future Trak (1PM)

The rain will end by the late afternoon, and we’ll start clearing out this evening.  Behind the cold front tonight we’ll continue with the clearing, and temperatures will drop down to the upper 30s.  Before it’s over we are expecting rain totals between a quarter to a half an inch.  However, we could see up to an inch between Elizabeth City and the Outer Banks.

Forecast Rain Totals

Forecast Rain Totals

The ground is very saturated lately from all of the rain we’ve had.  So far in January Norfolk has had 1.97″ of rain.  This is 0.55″ above the average rainfall for the year.  We finished December (2013) 1.49″ above the average.  It’s been tough to dry things out lately.

After tonight we’ll see (mostly) dry conditions.  There will be a large upper level trough that will sit over the eastern U.S. for a couple of days.  Some smaller pockets of energy will swing around this trough and will attempt to bring us a couple of sprinkles or flurries between Wednesday night and Friday.  Our Future Trak model does show snow tomorrow night over western Virginia.  As that moves east it a lot of it will dry up.  So we will probably only see a few flurries from that, but that’s about it.

Future Trak (Midnight Thu.)

Future Trak (Midnight Thu.)

Sorry snow lovers.  Keep in mind over the next few days that there will be some precipitation very close to our region.  It’s possible that a little cloud sneak in.  So check back with us.  At least there are no wild temperature swings on the horizon.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

6 Responses to “Soggy Tuesday”

  1. Mark says:

    Hi Jeremy. I you sure you want to go out on that limb and say “sorry snow lovers” when the models aren’t all in agreement and Wednesday and Thursday are over 24 hours away? From my experience living in this area when you have this type of setup a LOT can change in 24 hours. I remember a situation I think was in 2004 when the forecast was clear and cold for the next day the evening before and then I woke up to light snow and by 5PM we had 10 inches of snow on the ground. Not saying this is that scenario but just an example. Plus the NAM has been trending more West the last couple of runs. I’m not so sure we are out of the picture yet. Just my opinion.

    1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

      Hi Mark. Thanks for your feedback. I’ve given a lot of weight to the European model. It has been pretty dry for us for the last couple of days. I’m calling for flurries tonight into tomorrow. Then another chance late Friday into Saturday. It is a different setup from 2004, but I always keep that day in the back of my mind. Dec. 26th 2004. My first big snow and first big bust. NWS said that one of the soundings didn’t make it into the computer models the night before, and probably affected the forecast. Pretty neat. Anyway, you take care. Jeremy W.

      1. Chris says:

        Mark and Jeremy,
        I was not in the area in 2004 but pretty neat reading about how each of you remember the event. Very interesting and entertaining.

        Thanks,
        Chris

  2. Jeff says:

    Hey Jeremy, this seems like a snow deprived winter for us so far. I was thinking that we usually have at least a dusting by now. I still haven’t seen one snow flake falling from the sky this winter. Are we about at the norm for this time of year? I’m starting to thinking we could be heading in to February without anything.

    Thanks!

    1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

      Hi Jeff. A typical Hampton Roads Winter includes about 3-5 shots at a rain/snow mix. 1-2 small snows or flurries. Then every few years we’ll get a decent to large snow. (ie. 2010/2011). This year we keep getting the moisture, but we also push in the milder temps. We’ve been lacking an area of high pressure to the north to keep the cold air in place. As we started the Fall and Winter weather early this year. I’m wondering if we will start Spring early too. If so, then time is running out for snow. Time will tell. You take care. Jeremy W.

  3. Mark says:

    Hi Jeremy thanks for the feedback. It’s awesome that you can recall that storm just as I can. The info you just gave me makes a lot of sense. Anyways it looks like Winter is going to ramp up from looking at the models. A big ridge in the West, multiple rounds of Arctic air spilling into the region, SSW, PV displacement, MJO starting to move in the right direction and among other signals. If we could just get the NAO to go negative that would really help us in the setup to get a major winter storm. In the mean time it looks like you will be busy. Thanks for all you do.

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