Wet Weekend? And Update On Erin.August 16th, 2013 at 8:21 am by Jeremy Wheeler under Weather
(Update: Tropical storm Erin has been downgraded to a tropical depression as of 11am. This possibility was hinted at in the blog below):
There are several features to talk about in today’s weather blog. They bring some mixed news. The good news is that tropical storm Erin looks weaker and less likely to affect the U.S. The bad news is that we are still looking at wet weather for the weekend. So first off, the good news…Tropical storm Erin looks very weak on Satellite. There are no tall thunderstorms in or near the storm center at this time. The latest winds were put at 40mph which barely makes it a tropical storm. Also the official forecast has weakened quite a bit. It is still on a WNW track at 16mph.
By day 5 the National Hurricane Center has it weakening to a tropical depression. However, it’s entirely possible that it won’t even survive the next couple of days. It is moving into an area of drier air. Regardless, the latest shift north in the track is also good news. At that point out in the Atlantic the farther north it gets (short-term), the better then chance for it to stay out to sea. So we aren’t writing it off just yet, but it’s very good news for the U.S. at this point.
We have been watching the cluster of storms over the Yucatan Peninsula. So far it hasn’t materialized into anything. The National Hurricane Center still says there is a 50% chance for development as it rolls west into the Gulf of Mexico. For now I’m a bit skeptical, but we’ll monitor that area over the weekend.
For now I don’t see either of those features affecting us in the 7 day forecast.
So now onto the bad news. There is still a sizable stationary front to our south. This is the border between the warmer/humid air and the cooler/drier conditions that we’ve been enjoying.
Over the weekend the front will turn into a warm front. At least part of it. This will start to line up right along the coast. An area of low pressure or two will ride along this boundary creating the higher chances for rain.
The best chance for rain at this point looks like it will be from late Saturday into early Sunday.
I’m hoping the rain chances will taper off by Sunday afternoon, but I may be overly optimistic. Rain chances will taper off early next week. This will allow for more sunshine and hence more warming. Highs will be in the upper 70s for the next 2 days. Then some low 80s. We’ll be back to the mid-upper 80s by next Tuesday.
Have a good weekend!
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler