Does Chantal Still Exist?

July 10th, 2013 at 6:27 am by under Weather

There was such an interesting development from Chantal last night. So I thought I would put out an early blog today.  Chantal has weakened considerably.  In fact the National Hurricane Center is having a tough time finding a closed circulation.  They may even discontinue advisories by later this morning.  Here is the latest satellite.  It looks like a lot of the storms fell apart.

Tropical Satellite

Tropical Satellite

There was a decent flare up this morning, but it’s hard to tell if they were near the center.  Looking at the winds from observations and satellite (OSCAT), I  don’t see a closed circulation. However, there is a gap in the data to the south of the apparent center.  The latest official position was about 140 miles south of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.  The latest sustained winds were at 45mph.  The pressure has come up to 1011 mb (millbars of pressure).  The latest track has it going through Haiti, but as a very weak system.  Then, if it survives, it looks like it will cross Cuba.  I can’t see this system surviving any of that.  If it does somehow manage to make it, then NHC has it moving towards Florida.  I’ve shown the track up to Cuba, but I just can’t see it moving towards the east coast of Florida after that  point.  So I’ve left off the 2nd half of the forecast.

Chantal Forecast

Chantal Forecast

There are very few models which show a track along the Florida coast. Some of the ensembles do, but they are now the exception. Some of the models take it even farther west to the point that it misses Cuba and tries to go into the Gulf of Mexico.  The global models really have not been impressive with Chantal over the last couple of days.  So I’ve been dubious of of the storm from the start.  Some of the track models take Chantal past Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico.

Forecast Track Models

Forecast Track Models

We’ll keep an eye on this through the morning.  There may be a big update at 8am.  If not, then there is another update at 11am.

Locally the weather is quiet this morning.  I’ve had to throw in a few pop-up showers and storms for late in the day now based off of the latest models.  Most of the day should be rain free though.  Tomorrow a big cold front will approach from the northwest.  So we will see a high chance for showers and storms in the afternoon and evening. This will continue into Friday.  Temps will go from near 90 today and tomorrow to the low 80s by Friday and Saturday.  It looks like the front will clear the area by Saturday.  So I only have a slight chance for rain on that day now.  Then there will be a few showers and storms Sunday afternoon.  There’s still not a lot of confidence in that weekend forecast due to a wetter European model run.  So stay tuned.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

2 Responses to “Does Chantal Still Exist?”

  1. Jen says:

    I had planned an OBX beach day Friday. Do you think the whole day will be a bust? Or wait and see?

    1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

      Our model doesn’t have rain down there the entire time. I think you’ll be able to sneak in a little beach time, but it may not be too long. Good luck Jen. Jeremy

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