Pattern Change Again This Week + Tropical Storm Chantal

July 7th, 2013 at 8:45 pm by under Weather

It was a hot and humid holiday weekend across Hampton Roads, so I hope everyone enjoyed the break from the rain.  An area of high pressure moved right over us just in time for weekend, pushing the rain back toward the western half of the state. Now, that same area of high pressure is moving back east, loosening its grip on Hampton Roads. As this high moves east, our next storm system will have the opportunity to move in from the west starting on Monday.

Satellite/Radar

8 PM Satellite/Radar

I captured this satellite and radar around 8 PM this evening. Notice the clouds getting closer to us from the shower and storm activity out west. These showers and storms are moving northeast, so it will take a while for the rain to get closer to us. Some computer models weaken that area of showers and storms, while others bring some rain into Hampton Roads after midnight, closer to Tuesday morning. Here is what our FutureTrak has at 7 AM, which is a compromise of both scenarios.

Future Trak2

Future Trak 7 AM Monday

I think we will see a few showers early Monday morning with slightly better chances for rain in the afternoon. Any morning showers will leave outflow boundaries across the region. During the peak of daytime heating, these boundaries could spark off more showers and storms. An upper level low will bring in cold air aloft and depending on how much sunshine we see, a few strong thunderstorms may develop by Monday afternoon. Our Future Trak model is picking up on the activity late Monday afternoon. Remember the rain will be hit or miss, just like last week.

Future Trak at 5 PM

Future Trak at 5 PM Monday

Now onto the tropics….tropics are heating up! Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson wrote a blog yesterday about 2 areas to watch. He talked about Invest 95 in the Atlantic off the coast of South America.

Tropical Satellite

Tropical Satellite

This disturbance continues to show signs of organization. Right now, this disturbance is moving WNW at about 25mph. The water is very warm and there is not a lot of wind shear in the atmosphere. Remember…hurricanes tend to fall apart when wind shear is high. As of the 8 PM update, the National Hurricane Center is giving this disturbance a 70% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.  The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly in and investigate this area of disturbed weather Monday afternoon. If this disturbance develops into a tropical storm, the next name on the list is Chantal. Most of the computer models take this disturbance westward into the Caribbean over the next few days, so we will have plenty of time to track it. Stay tuned to WAVY TV 10 and wavy.com for the latest on any tropical activity.

UPDATE:

The National Hurricane Center has upgraded this disturbance to a tropical storm. Here are the currents on Chantal.

Tropical Storm Chantal

Tropical Storm Chantal

The storm is expected to remain a tropical storm as it moves through the Caribbean over the next few days. Here is the latest track from the National Hurricane Center.

Chantal's Track

Chantal’s Track

By Friday night, this storm could affect Florida as a tropical depression. Meteorologist Jeremy Wheeler will have more information starting Monday morning on WAVY News 10 at 4:30 AM.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

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