Headed Into A Wet Weekend!June 28th, 2013 at 9:11 am by Jeremy Wheeler under Weather
For some folks lately it’s been very wet and they wonder when the rain will end. For others (in the same viewing area), they ask when we are going to get the rain. That is the frustrating nature of scattered showers and storms. Yesterday, the storms started up around 4pm, but they were isolated. They became more numerous (scattered) towards the evening:
Some folks had a good quarter to half inch of rain. Others just plain missed.
We’ll have similar weather for today. Partly cloudy skies with scattered showers and storms developing this afternoon. We saw some heavy downpours yesterday. We’ll see some more out there again today. A few strong to severe storms are also possible. We could even see some wind gusts to over 55mph in the more active storms. We have a little better shot at seeing severe weather today compared to yesterday. This is due to some upper level support that we haven’t really seen in recent days. Our whole region is in a slight risk for severe weather.
I put the chance for rain at 40%. (same as yesterday). As we go into the weekend, the rain chances will increase. A cold front is expected to come down from the Ohio River Valley tonight. This will create a focus for the rain and storms. This is expected to happen a couple of hours after midnight into early tomorrow morning. All of the models are showing heavy rain at that time.
Along with the cold front moving in and stalling out there will be a sizable dip in the jetstream (trough) over our region.
This weather pattern is very unusual. Typically in the Summer, the jetstream pushes up north into Canada and stays there. This makes for a quiet weather pattern across the U.S. with a lot of high pressure, heat, and humidity. For the past couple of years, the jetstream has occasionally been dipping down during the Summer and creating a mixed up pattern. Last year it was very frustrating for cold fronts to come down into our region and stall out. The same thing is happening this weekend. It makes it difficult for forecasting because stationary fronts aren’t 100% stationary. They drift. This is on a scale that is hard for computer models to see. So the placement of storms on a local scale can get very tricky. Luckily this incoming front won’t stall out for long. It should slowly migrate westward and fall apart Sunday into Monday. Having said all that…this weather pattern will create a wet and stormy weekend.
Some models do show a break in the more widespread rain with more scattered (40%) showers and storms during Saturday afternoon and evening. However, our Future Trak model actually has a few strong storms returning at that time. Then for Sunday they all show scattered showers and storms both during the morning and the afternoon right along that front. I put the chance for rain at 60% for both of those times. The timing for any breaks is very apt to change, but that’s what the latest models look like. We’ll have a couple of updates today to see if there are any shifts in the timing.
I’ll put it out there…there is a small bust potential. If the front stalls a bit more offshore/east. Then more of the rain will go offshore. Probably for Saturday afternoon and evening. That would allow for a few hours of beach time. The rain would return though as the front tries to move back west on Sunday. Again check back with us to see if we trend that way. Right now we are not.
As the big trough retrogrades west (another unusual thing for Summer), we’ll be left with a lot of warmth and humidity. Scattered afternoon showers and storms are expected all next week. Even for the 4th of July. That’s still far out though. We’ll update that forecast through the weekend and early next week. Have a good weekend. The Jazz Festival is on in Hampton and hopefully they can still get the olden days car show on in Smithfield.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler