Not So Easy Weekend Forecast…(Sigh) (Evening Update)

June 21st, 2013 at 8:53 am by under Weather

(I wanted to update this and apologize for my bust forecast from this morning.  The earlier models took the offshore showers and dissipated them as they approached Hampton Roads.  They did bring some showers to North Carolina today and Virginia tonight, but I guess there was enough moisture to keep the showers intact into southeast Virginia.  Hope it didn’t ruin too many outdoor plans.  You can see my previous thinking below.  I guess the title to this blog was very appropriate today).  Jeremy

The title to this blog is a bit of a joke when you look at the title to yesterday’s blog.  Basically that little stationary front to the south is throwing a small monkey wrench into the perfect weekend forecast.  Let’s talk about it:

This morning we had some cloud cover move into the region. It should break up a bit as we get into the later morning hours, but it wasn’t the prettiest start to the first day of Summer.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

We still have easterly winds, so that should keep things cool near the shore.  Highs will be in the upper 70s with some 80s inland.  Humidity has also started to increase today.  It won’t be too high just yet, but it will increase compared to yesterday.  The stationary front to the south will slowly creep northward today.  This will bring a few showers into the Outer Banks and parts of northeast North Carolina.

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

Tomorrow the front will drift even closer to the region.  There may be a weak area of low pressure forming along the front.  So the chance for scattered showers will drift north as well.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

Remember stationary fronts are not 100% set in place.  They do drift slowly, but they just don’t move very fast. It will hug the coast tomorrow.  Therefore, we put in a 30% chance for showers in the Saturday forecast.  The models are in fair agreement about this.  Both that there will be a chance for some showers, and that the rain chances don’t look too high.  Here is Future Trak for tomorrow afternoon:

Future Trak (Saturday)

Future Trak (Saturday)

By Sunday the front should fall apart.  The better chances for rain look to push into central Virginia.  So I only put in a slight chance.  All-in-all this weekend looks good, but a few of us will see those scattered showers. Next week the heat, humidity, and rain chances all go up.  So it will feel a lot more like Summer then compared to today.

One local thing that needs to be talked about is the threat for rip currents at the beaches.  The beach forecast has a moderate to high threat for rip currents today.

Today's Beach Forecast

Today’s Beach Forecast

The waves have been up to 3ft.  So it’s good for surfers, but bad for the swimmers.  Use extra caution and remember… If you do get caught in a rip current, then swim parallel to shore.  Then swim back when you find a weaker current.

Last, and pretty much least..tropical storm Barry has fallen apart over the higher elevations of Mexico, but there has been heavy rain and flooding over parts of the region.  Especially around Veracruz Mexico.

Tropical Satellite

Tropical Satellite

Heavy rain will continue in the area, but it should be a lot more disorganized from here on out.

Have a good weekend.  Hope the few showers don’t ruin any outdoor events.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 

One Response to “Not So Easy Weekend Forecast…(Sigh) (Evening Update)”

  1. Don says:

    Well Jeremy, at least you were forthcoming in admitting that the 40% chance of rain forecast actually turned into a 100% percent certain deluge. I don’t own a rain gauge, but I’m sure parts of where Portsmouth, Chesapeake, and Suffolk triangulate we received in excess of 2 inches of rain in a relatively short period of time. Perhaps WAVY-TV 10 should consider an alternative to Super “Floppler” Radar, in predicting your forecast modules in the future?

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