Strong Storms Tonight (Midday Update)

June 13th, 2013 at 9:48 am by under Weather

Well here we go again, for the second time this week we have a risk for Severe Weather across Hampton Roads. If you remember on Monday we had severe storms move across Chesapeake and Virginia Beach. Those areas, as well as the entire viewing area have the chance to see some severe weather tonight.

Mod. Risk for Hampton Roads Cities.

Mod. Risk for Hampton Roads Cities.

We usually do not see too many moderate risk’s every year, usually 3-4 days, and that’s it. We need to stay Sky Aware this afternoon and especially when we could see these storms develop.

Threat Index

Threat Index

Heavy rain is likely, but the High Wind will be the biggest threat for tonight. The risk for large hail (1″/Golf Ball) is also possible with these storms. The tornado risk is low, but still present. The timing for these storms will still be late today, and close to sunset.

Future Trak & 6pm

Future Trak & 6pm

Future Trak @ 7pm

Future Trak @ 7pm

 

You can see hour-by-hour on what our Future Trak is thinking for tonight. We should see the development of these storms early towards Richmond. They could be moving at 40 and maybe up to 50mph to the East, similar to the line of storms this morning. This will keep the threat for damaging wind gusts high. Some have asked me if these storms are pushing in around 8pm will they be weaker since peak heating is done? Usually I would say yes, but since there is already so much heat/humidity available in the atmosphere they already have plenty of fuel to stay strong.

The mid levels of the atmosphere also look promising for severe weather. There is plenty of CAPE (Lift), Low CIN (Opposite force of CAPE), and we should also be able to reach the Convective Temperature of 93 degrees today. Conv. T is how warm we need to be to erase all of the CIN and allow the air to freely rise (creating clouds and storms). The shear should be high today for the development of storms, but the helicity and directional shear are lower which should help to inhibit a tornado outbreak. Isolated Tornadoes are still possible.

 

Stay sky aware this afternoon and evening. Meteorologist Tiffany Savona and Chief Meteorologist Don Slater will be in this evening to track the storms.

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson

8 Responses to “Strong Storms Tonight (Midday Update)”

  1. Melody says:

    My aunt, 10 month old son and I were planning to leave to drive to New Hampshire tonight around 7pm from Portsmouth. We will drive over the CBBT and up the eastern shore on route 13. What time do you think would be the best to leave? Earlier to beat the storm, or later after it’s passed? Or do you think 7pm is an alright time?

    1. Jeff Edmondson WAVY says:

      It will be best to leave earlier. If you can leave and cross it by 5-6 you are in good shape.

      1. Tb says:

        Good to know. As I had the same question since I love up there

  2. Annie says:

    will this storm interfere with the drive home today? Newport News to Williamsburg. Traffic is going to be awful isn’t it?

  3. Jenny S says:

    My daughter has rehearsal at Chrysler Hall @ 5:30 we live in Suffolk near College Drive. Is it best not to drive?

  4. Beth Sova says:

    Jeff:
    I am suppposed to travel from Chesapeake VA to Kitty Hawk and back tonight to speak at a meeting. This is not life or death, but I am wondering if it is wise to make this trip tonight. I’ll be coming back around 8 pm. I feel I am letting folks down if I don’t go.

    Beth Sova, CNM

  5. Jennifer says:

    Jeff, are you sure low risk for tornadoes? I have just come from the Navy Base Commissary and I swear it looked like a mini tornado, the wind was sweeping across the base, ripping at trees, and even tearing a stop sign up from the ground. It was dark and the wind was FIERCE. We hightailed it home!

  6. Scott Eckenrode says:

    I would say these srorms are a flop so far.

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