Tropical Storm Andrea

June 5th, 2013 at 8:12 pm by under Weather

It’s official.  Tropical Storm Andrea has formed in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  It has sustained winds of about 40mph.  It’s about 310 miles southwest of Tampa Florida moving at an “uncertain” (NHC) northerly direction at less than 5mph.  The general thinking from my previous blog has not changed much.  The models still generally bring the system north/northeast through Florida tomorrow.  Then an upper level trough will pick it up and accelerate it to the northeast on Friday.  The timing and the placement of the models still differ.  The NAM actually takes it slower through western Virginia by late Friday.  The GFS has the low jumping or reforming ahead of a cold front as it moves through the region during the day on Friday.  It has it as a broad area of low pressure when it moves through.  I can’t see it remaining a tropical system for long after landfall looking at either of these models.  The European model still keeps an intact low through the period and brings it through mostly late Friday into the overnight hours.  It looks like a pretty reasonable solution, but I would also buy into the reforming of the center on the GFS.  So most likely we would see a blend of the two models.  Sorry for getting a little technical there.  Let’s dumb it down a little.

Here is the latest track from the National Hurricane Center:

Track Of Andrea

Track Of Andrea

They follow the European track pretty closely.  If it holds this track then it will be in northeast North Carolina by Friday morning, and would quickly speed through Virginia during the afternoon and evening.  All of the models show heavy rain now.  There’s so much moisture coming up that I don’t think the heavy rain greatly depends on the exact track.  However, a small area of flooding rain (possibly) may set up near the center.  Here is the latest forecast for rainfall from the Weather Prediction Center (formerly the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center).

3 Day Rainfall Forecast

3 Day Rainfall Forecast

I still don’t see any tidal flooding from this.  It’s just not that type of setup.  The winds may pick up to 35mph in some of the gusts, but overall I don’t think the winds will be too bad.  With the broad rotation in the atmosphere, there will be a chance for some isolated tornadoes in the region.  These are usually small/quick types though.  Not like the monsters in the Plains.

There is some dry air in place right now.  Also, despite recent rain the ground is starting to dry out.  So unless we get over 2-3inches in an hour, then we should be able to soak up a lot of that rain.

The system will move out on Saturday.  Some of the models still have some scattered showers and storms firing up along a lingering boundary behind Andrea, but the rain chances look much less than Friday.  I’d say 80% chance for Friday.  20-30% Saturday morning.  Up to a 40-50% chance Saturday afternoon.  We may be able to drop that so stay tuned.  Even less chance for Sunday. Chief meteorologist Don Slater will have an update tonight.  I’ll be in with a full update tomorrow morning.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 

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