Possible Tropical Trouble!

June 5th, 2013 at 9:13 am by under Weather

There are several areas of active weather across the country.  There are more storms in the Plains and there is more rain in the Midwest.  The new boy in town is the potential tropical system in the Gulf Of Mexico.

Active Weather Regions

Active Weather Regions

To me it looks like the system in the Gulf is starting to get its act together.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

So far most of the storms have been well east of the center of low pressure, but it looks like some of the storms may have started to wrap in closer to that center this morning.  This could become a tropical depression or tropical storm Andrea in the next 24-48 hours.  The National Hurricane Center has a 50% chance for this developing into a tropical system.  Their latest statement says that the circulations still remains poorly organized.  They might investigate it later today with flight reconnaissance.  So stay tuned for updates.  It is already bringing heavy rain to south Florida.  The models do pick up on this system, and bring it into Florida as a weak system by tomorrow.  There is a big upper level trough (dip in the jetstream) over the central U.S.  While it is currently aiding storm development over Oklahoma and Kansas today,  it will also help to move the Gulf low northward over the next couple of days.  As the trough slides east, the upper level winds out ahead of it will be south/southwesterly.  This will pick up the Gulf system and move it along the east coast through the weekend.

I’m thinking it will be a weak non-tropical low as it heads up this way.  However, some of the surrounding tropical humidity will move up with it. This will create a region of heavy rain as it interacts with the relatively cooler/drier air in place right now.  The track for that heavy rain area has been shifting with each model run, but it looks like it will generally lie over or very near the viewing area sometime from Friday through early Saturday.

So with all that said. Here’s what it looks like for our local forecast…We’ll see some more Great (with a capital G) weather today due to a big dry airmass and an area of high pressure.  Skies will be mostly sunny with upper 70s and light east winds.  There will be some 80s inland.  Tomorrow most of the day will be rain free, but late in the afternoon into the evening we’ll have some scattered showers and storms.  These will push from North Carolina into southeast Virginia.  Some of the heavy rain will already start to move in by Friday even though the low will likely be to our south.

Future Trak (6AM Friday)

Future Trak (6AM Friday)

Friday has the highest potential for rain and heavy rain, but the location of the heaviest downpours will depend on the track of the low.  If it does move right across the region, then there may be a potential for severe weather as well.  We could even see a threat for isolated tornadoes as there may be a quick moving area of helicity near the low.  By Saturday the system looks like it will have moved through and should head off towards the northeast states.  However, a weak boundary left behind the system could trigger at least some scattered showers and storms. Due to this feature I put the rain chances at 50-60%. By Sunday the rain chances go down to a 20-30% chance as the boundary will likely wash out.  Speaking of… I don’t think this weekend will be a washout.  So don’t cancel your outdoor plans just yet.  However, I would have a backup plan for outdoor events on Friday.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

6 Responses to “Possible Tropical Trouble!”

  1. Greg says:

    Jeremy,

    Whats the latest update from the NHC. I saw they have upgraded the chances of this thing becoming Tropical to 60%. If this skirts up the coast, do you forsee any tidal flooding?

    1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

      Hi Greg. I’m gonna put out a mini update right now. It is now a tropical storm. Jeremy W.

  2. Jay says:

    I am a seior at Nansemond River High School in Suffolk and ourgraduation is scheduled for Saturaday outside at 11:30 and I would like to know what is the chances of rain for this time?

    1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

      Hi Jay. There will be a lingering boundary, but the rain chances will be less on Saturday. I put it at about 30% in the morning a little higher in the afternoon. This as opposed to Friday with an 80% chance. Check back as we may be able to lower the rain chances even more. Still a bit early. So we’ll see. Jeremy W.

  3. Shauntina says:

    As of right now and possibly into tomorrow, what exactly is our biggest threat for the Hampton Roads area when the term “severe” is mentioned? What will we see more of and what has a huge percentage of happening?

    1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

      Hello Shauntina. In this case severe pertains to the chance for isolated tornadoes. The winds will probably only gust up to about 35-40mph unless you are right on the water. Then you could see a few gusts to 45mph. For reference, severe thunderstorms have winds of 58mph or greater. Hail will not be an issue. Hope that explains it. Thanks for asking! Jeremy

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