Gloomy Forecast…Try To Stay Positive.May 6th, 2013 at 8:24 am by Jeremy Wheeler under Weather
It will be tough to stay in a good mood over the next few days. That’s due to some gloomy weather in the forecast, and also because there were lots of clouds this last weekend. More than we forecast for Sunday. So, try to keep your chin up and stay positive. Lots of folks are starting to get cabin fever instead of Spring fever. Today we started with some widely scattered showers and patchy thick fog. The rain was more widespread in the western parts of the 2-state region.
There is an area of low pressure over Tennessee and Alabama that brought rain and snow to parts of the Rockies and the Midwest just a few days ago. It is a very slow moving system. This is due to an upper level low getting cutoff and slowly drifting to the east.
The upper level low and surface low will steadily push northeast over the next 4 days. It should finally push out by Thursday, but not before dumping lots of rain over the entire region.
Today, it’s not the low itself as much as it is the moisture streaming in overhead. So this is going to produce scattered showers today. The chance for rain is 30% this morning. 50% for the afternoon. Tonight the moisture stream looks to sit right on top of us. This will increase the rain chances quite a bit.
By tomorrow the surface low will be just a little closer to us. However, the rain chances look to go up quite a bit as the upper level part of the system starts to push in. So we expect scattered to widespread rain showers in the forecast for Tuesday. Our model shows a band of moderate-heavy rain setting up over the area during the afternoon.
With the slow moving system we are still expecting rain on Wednesday and Thursday. I have reduced rain chances as the low should be drifting away by late Wendsday into Thursday. However, I may have to amend that as those days get closer. Here’s my forecast for now:
Most of the rain should be spread out enough that I don’t expect widespread flooding. However, some localized flooding (a couple of homes or even neighborhoods) will be possible. All-in-all we expect a solid 1-3 inches of rain in the region. Our model forecasts about 1-2 inches of rain through Wednesday morning. NOAA (HPC) forecasts 1-3 inches of rain over the next 3 days.
For now we are expecting a break on Friday, but the models are hinting at throwing some rain in even for that day. It looks like more rain (from another system) will move in next weekend. As I said from the start of this blog. It’s going to be tough to cheer up with this weather, so hang in there.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler