A Quiet and Cloudy Weekend, Stormy Next Week

March 2nd, 2013 at 9:17 am by under Weather

A Little Sun near Rodanthe this morning.

If you are located on the Outer Banks then you might have seen a little sunshine this morning. The rest of us saw a cloudy start to the day. A few across the E. Shore near Painter, VA saw flurries around 8am this morning! Our pattern of cloudy skies might be coming to an end tomorrow afternoon where we could see some more sun. Regardless, temperatures should stay in the 40s for our high temperatures for the next 3-4 days. Remember, the normal high this time of year is 54 degrees.

Okay, now lets take a look at the storm system for next week:

Future Trak; Wed 12pm

It looks like we might start to see some of the rain from this storm complex arriving on Tuesday evening across our area. By Wednesday we are looking at a wet day; with rain, wind, and a possibility for some minor tidal flooding.

Thursday Morning at 4am

As the storm moves offshore there might be enough cold air to let some of the rainfall change to snow. At this time we will still have that srong wind out of the northeast.

The European Model is taking a different route (as usual):

ECMWF (Euro) at 7pm Wednesday

ECMWF Temperatures. Same time as above.

Notice how the temperatures stay very warm. Remember, this storm is tapping in to warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean. More of the air is sourced from that warm/humid airmass versus the colder and dry Canadian airmass to the north. I don’t really believe that if the storm takes this path that the Euro advertises that we could get any snow here. It would have to be a bit more south and east to allow more cold air to funnel in for us to have a better shot at snow.

Forecast Snowfall at a 10:1 ratio.

For the upper elevations, this is going to be a significant storm. For Hampton Roads, we’ll have to wait and see how future model runs track this storm as its still to early to tell if we will need to have our rain boots or snow shovels ready for this storm.

Enjoy your weekend!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson

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