The Latest Look at the Snow Chances

February 15th, 2013 at 2:45 pm by under Weather

Many of the weather models have refreshed since this mornings blog that Jeremy wrote.

Friday Morning Blog

The latest output by our high resolution model starts to decrease the total snow that we might see across the area, at the same time the latest GFS run brings 4.5″ of snow for Norfolk. Who do you trust? Well lets look and see what the latest Future Trak brings us:

Future Trak @ 2pm

Future Trak @ 2pm

We will start to see rain move in across the Hampton Roads cities around the noon hour tomorrow. In to the mid afternoon the whole area is expected to fill in with a wintry mix.

Mix across Virginia

Precip Ending at 10pm. Maybe?!?

This is a big change to earlier when the future trak kept all of us with some accumulating snow through midnight. In a way I have to say I cannot trust this particular model as much because it would seem odd that the dry air would wrap in this way and especially at this time to shut down all of the snow. Regardless of what model you look at we should see all of it move out around sunrise on Sunday.

Now lets talk totals, earlier I mentioned that the GFS was saying 4.5″ of snow for Norfolk, the 12Z NAM said 0″, while the 6Z had about 2″ of snow. I am keeping us in a broad area of 1-2″ for now:

Snow Forecast in to Sunday Morning

On grassy surfaces the 1-2″ is expected, for the road ways we will see close to an inch if this storms track stays on par from what the models have generally said thus far. Keep in mind, if this moves offshore faster we could only see a dusting while some cities might still see 3″.

Jeremy and I are in tonight at 5pm and we’ll have the latest on the snow totals.

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson

17 Responses to “The Latest Look at the Snow Chances”

  1. jay williams says:

    jeff are we actually going to see 3-5 inches here in norfolk/portsmouth

    1. Jeff Edmondson WAVY says:

      I think that might be too much, but I want to see what the new models say this evening.

  2. Marc says:

    From what I’ve been reading the other models including the GFS are increasing the snow and precip and trending more and more not less. Even the consistant EURO brought in snow in its last run. The trend is on our side. I have a feeling this will be like a storm in 2000 where during the week most models had nothing and then 48 hours before starting seeing it and then BAM on the day of the Mets had to keep uping the snow totals each hour. Went from 1-3 inches to 6-8 in 2 hours. Not saying that will happen just my thoughts on the developing situation.

    1. Andy says:

      Speaking of that, their was a similar event the day after Christmas 2004 where we were supposed to get a mix of rain snow to rain I think, instead it stayed all snow and they keep uping the snow totals and warnings and all. It could happen we will see. Its like one of those last minute things where you don’t know what were really getting until few hours before it starts.

  3. Maj says:

    So, if you were me, would you postpone your Sunday morning trip to the Outer Banks??

    1. Jeff Edmondson WAVY says:

      No, the side streets will be slippery but the main roads should be fine. Check 511 before you go.

  4. Anthony says:

    If you notice all our big snowstorms happen without much warning, it’s just the area being so close to the water, when Mets call for a foot it won’t snow, I just remember a few years ago the day after Christmas a storm formed and blew up off the coast, no one even predicted flurries

  5. Chris says:

    I say we will get 7 inches. This has the feeling of that odd snowstorm that no one thinks will be anything.

  6. Kim says:

    Has anyone looked outside this morning (Saturday?) It is a beautiful out barely a cloud in the sky. Does this mean once again the Hampton Roads area was true to form? No snow again?

    1. Jeff Edmondson WAVY says:

      You can’t look in such the short term, its coming tonight.

  7. Amy says:

    Only time will tell!

  8. Jordan says:

    I have to leave late this afternoon for a trip down to the VA eastern shore (coming down through MD). I’ll be driving in the dark. Since checking the weather report yesterday, things seem to have taken a turn for the worst. Different websites are now saying different things for the Eastern Shore and predictions are all over the place. When I try to listen to live news/weather forecasts they don’t really seem to give any thought to those traveling on the eastern shore.. always seem to focus on places like Norfolk, Suffolk, VA Beach and such. I really do not want to drive in the snow after dark if it is expected to stick to the roads or turn to ice. Just how bad will the MD/VA eastern shore be affected by the storm? I don’t want to start making the trip only to find myself getting stuck somewhere on a long stretch of Rt 50/13 in the middle of nowhere.

    1. Jeff Edmondson WAVY says:

      I am expecting 1-2″ of snow for the E. Shore. After sunset I am expecting it to accumulate but the main road should remain wet if it gets treated today. Driving will be slower than normal, but it will be passable. If you are driving past 9-10pm things will start to get icy.

  9. Bill says:

    I am a minister and am wondering about our worship service tomorrow morning with persons making their way through secondary roads for church as early as 8 am. Any thoughts on road and parking lot conditions with current forecast? Our facility is located on a secondary road and we do not contract to clear the parking lot of snow.

  10. Bill says:

    By the way, we are in Newport News

    1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

      You could have a few problems then Bill. At this time we are expecting a couple of inches that will eventually stick to the secondaries. At least you’ll know by very early tomorrow morning what you’ll be dealing with well before services. Jeremy

Leave a Reply