Warm Valentine Love…Then A Cold Weekend.February 14th, 2013 at 9:52 am by Jeremy Wheeler under Weather
The rain has departed the region, and now we can look forward to some sunshine. We are looking good for this Valentine’s Day. Expect lots of sunshine with highs in the low/mid 50s.
High pressure will build in through the afternoon and will provide the clearing skies. Winds will be light and out of the West-Northwest.
Tomorrow will be even better with more southerly winds yet just as much sunshine. Highs will be in the upper 50s with a few 60s south. A quick shower may sneak in during the evening, but the day looks nice and dry for now. There will be a big temperature swing as lows tomorrow morning will start in the low/mid 30s in many locations.
Now over the weekend things still look interesting, but maybe not in terms of big weather. Meteorologically, there will be a very large trough over the region in the upper levels. Also we are looking at some much colder weather pushing in from Canada. The models have been disagreeing a bit about developing an area of low pressure at the surface and offshore. The more consistent European model is still only showing a few flurries with the low forming far from our region. The GFS model is once again showing some snow for the region, but it keeps it mostly in central and northern Virginia. Both models show the highest chance for any precipitation will be Saturday morning behind the first strong cold front. At least at this time. Now that the NAM is in range. We can also view that solution. It is actually in line with the GFS in putting some snow in northern Virgnia, but it has the low weaker and farther offshore. It does bring some flurries and a few light snow showers through early on Saturday, but it doesn’t look like it has any accumulations here. It’s almost a nice compromise between the European and the GFS. The Canadian is also showing a little (very little) precip over the area Saturday morning with a very weak low far offshore. So I think the trend is definitely there.
I’m calling for a compromise between the models. A couple of inches of snow are possible in northern Virginia, and some of that could make it down into the northern parts of our viewing area (Northern Neck, Middle Peninsula, Eastern Shore.
If the GFS has its way, then it may drop even farther south. We’ll see. Otherwise I think we’ll have lots of flurries with a light snow shower or two in Hampton Roads. It would be cold enough to stick Saturday morning, but highs on Saturday will be in the low 40s. We’ll drop to the 20s Saturday night into Sunday. Then highs will only be in the mid 30s on Sunday. I also think a few flurries are possible Sunday morning with the large trough still overhead, but we will probably clear out Sunday afternoon. It also looks to be pretty windy on Sunday. That depends on how strong the low gets over the north Atlantic. We’ll have plenty of time to update the weekend forecast, but that’s how it looks at this time.
Update…(The morning run of the GFS model has more snow and all the way down to the metro area. The morning run of the NAM model still only has flurries with a few snow showers for our region. Still watching all the models and noting that the GFS has been flip-flopping quite a bit. Stay tuned for updates on WAVY-TV).
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler