Weather Drama?

February 12th, 2013 at 9:22 am by under Weather

The word drama has been getting tossed around lately for the weather.  I took a course in Japanese culture when I was in college, and sometimes the term  “Noh Drama” pops into my head when someone says there is no drama.  That is a form of classical plays that have been performed since the 14th century.  So what’s all the hubub anyway?  Well, we really do have some quiet weather today.  High pressure will deliver lots of sunshine with a little more clouds across North Carolina.  A few rain showers may make it into central North Carlina, but not to our viewing area:

Today’s Forecast Map

Tonight rain will move up from the south.  A weak area of low pressure will close-in from the southwest.  I don’t think we’ll see too much rain tonight.  Just a few showers.  Tomorrow,though  we can expected scattered to occasional showers as the low moves through.  When the low kicks out Wednesday night there may be a little changeover to snow on the Northern Neck, but the rest of the region will only see cold rain.

Thursday and Friday look dry and mild with highs in the mid 50s.  So again…no drama.

Then….Saturday….. The general forecast shows an area of low pressure that forms near the region and moves offshore.  Yesterday, it looked like the northeast was going to get hit again with snow, but the models have been trending drier for them.  Locally, the models disagree…a lot!  The GFS model has shown quite a bit of snow for Hampton Roads over the last several runs.  Although the overnight run came in and showed a little bit less.  We’ll see what the morning run comes up with.   The Canadian model the warmest of the models with a strong low that moves right through the Mid-Atlantic.  That version would give us all rain except for a brief mix at the end.  The typically trusty European is actually showing a very dry scenario, as it has the low strengthening much farther offshore.  It’s odd that it is so different, but reminds me of one of the first systems that affected our area this Winter.   Our new long-range model is on the snowy side.  It has a pretty good swath of snow in the whole region Saturday night into early Sunday.  However, it isn’t high resolution until it gets out to 48 hours or less.

Future Trak Saturday Evening.

With the models as split as they are, it goes without saying that this is a wait-and-see situation.  We’ll have to monitor which way the models trend.  At least it doesn’t look as bad for the New England area as it did in yesterday’s runs.  Regardless, it will definitely be colder next weekend.  We may even see some highs in the 30s again.  Stay tuned!
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

2 Responses to “Weather Drama?”

  1. Jasko says:

    If it actually does snow do you think we could possibly get big snowfall?

    1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

      The latest models are coming in much drier since this morning. At the moment it doesn’t look like much of anything will happen this weekend. The GFS has had a wild swing, and now its in the morning and afternoon runs. I do think we could get one more decent snow before Spring sets in, but the window is narrowing. Jeremy

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