Dry AM….Snowy Evening CommuteJanuary 25th, 2013 at 6:30 am by Jeremy Wheeler under Weather
We are definitely dry this morning. There is no snow in the 2 state region…yet!!
A weak area of low pressure will move closer to our region today, and it will be in cahoots with a decent upper level trough. Moisture will increase out of the south as well. This will allow for snow to form later this afternoon. The whole viewing area (pretty much) is under a Winter Weather Advisory from this afternoon until a little after midnight.
The National Weather Service is calling for 1-3 inches in the advised area. Our model (Future Trak) has a little more than 3 inches in some places. So I am calling for a large section of 2-4 inches. Here is my latest map for the expected snowfall:
I’m very concerned about the mix zone coming up from the south and possibly causing some freezing rain. The mix zone is the reason that I only have the 1-2″ zone across parts of the southside. However, there will also be a time where freezing rain could take over and tamp down the snow. The reason is that there will be a narrow band of warmer air in the mid levels of the atmosphere.
Again, this is expected over parts of northeast North Carolina and to near the state line. It could affect southern Virginia Beach and Chesapeake. Stay tuned as a small change in that mix zone will dramatically change the snow values. The models are pretty consistent in showing this thin warm layer this evening.
Here is what our Future Trak model is showing for 3pm today:
This should be all snow at first, and the ground will be cold enough for it to stick. At 9pm is shows the mix zone snaking its way north. Our model has always done a good job with the mix zones with these events in the past.
The hi-res NAM is also showing this mix zone in the same ballpark. Again… that green area may show up as rain, but I think a lot of that would freeze or re-freeze. I highly suggest you get off work early if you can. I know some cannot. Also, you may have to pick up your kids early as early school dismissals will be common. Be careful driving out there. This could get very messy.
So this is the morning update. We’ll have another one later this morning or around midday.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler