Dry AM….Snowy Evening Commute

January 25th, 2013 at 6:30 am by under Weather

We are definitely dry this morning.  There is no snow in the 2 state region…yet!!

Satellite/Radar This Morning

A weak area of low pressure will move closer to our region today, and it will be in cahoots with a decent upper level trough.  Moisture will increase out of the south as well.  This will allow for snow to form later this afternoon.  The whole viewing area (pretty much) is under a Winter Weather Advisory from this afternoon until a little after midnight.

Winter Weather Advisory

The National Weather Service is calling for 1-3 inches in the advised area.  Our model (Future Trak) has a little more than 3 inches in some places.  So I am calling for a large section of 2-4 inches.  Here is my latest map for the expected snowfall:

Snowfall Forecast

I’m very concerned about the mix zone coming up from the south and possibly causing some freezing rain.  The mix zone is the reason that I only have the 1-2″ zone across parts of the southside.  However, there will also be a time where freezing rain could take over and tamp down the snow.  The reason is that there will be a narrow band of warmer air in the mid levels of the atmosphere.

Freezing Rain Possible

Again, this is expected over parts of northeast North Carolina and to near the state line.  It could affect southern Virginia Beach and Chesapeake.  Stay tuned as a small change in that mix zone will dramatically change the snow values. The models are pretty consistent in showing this thin warm layer this evening.

Here is what our Future Trak model is showing for 3pm today:

Future Trak Model (3pm)

This should be all snow at first, and the ground will be cold enough for it to stick.  At 9pm is shows the mix zone snaking its way north.  Our model has always done a good job with the mix zones with these events in the past.

Future Trak (9pm)

The hi-res NAM is also showing this mix zone in the same ballpark. Again… that green area may show up as rain, but I think a lot of that would freeze or re-freeze.  I highly suggest you get off work early if you can.  I know some cannot.  Also, you may have to pick up your kids early as early school dismissals will be common.  Be careful driving out there.  This could get very messy.

So this is the morning update.  We’ll have another one later this morning or around midday.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

14 Responses to “Dry AM….Snowy Evening Commute”

  1. Adam says:

    There is going to be a lot of disappointed snow lovers in Chesapeake, VaBeach and Suffolk when this turns out to be a rain event, which it will. Freezing line is too close for comfort.

    1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

      I agree that that is a possibility Adam, especially on the southern end. I think with that rain that there would also be sleet and some possible freezing rain to go with it. Still though, it does look to at least start as snow. Jeremy

  2. Jeff says:

    Yes pleeaseee on 0z euro for February 1!!! That would be pretty sweet!

  3. Lisa says:

    I say, “bring on the snow” … the kids (and some adults) need at least one good snow to play in each Winter.

  4. cherie says:

    It looks like Suffolk will only be getting light snow. Do you see Suffolk getting any accumulation ?

    1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

      I do think Suffolk will get some accumulations Cherie. Possibly 1-3″. If you are closer to the Dismal swamp, then that mix zone may come up and reduce your totals though. Jeremy

  5. richard corcoran says:

    Will the weather be Ice or Snow in Salem area of the Beach?

    1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

      Hi Richard. Probably snow at the start and for most of the afternoon/evening. Sometime this evening though the mix line may come up as far north as Salem. That could either melt some of the snow or even put down a little ice over what’s on the ground. It’s a close call for your area. As is usually the case for Virginia Beach. Jeremy

  6. Jeff says:

    Thoughts on 0Z NAM? Greatly increased snow as well as moved the mix line a little further south instead of north??

    1. Jeff says:

      Sorry meant 12Z NAM

  7. Page says:

    Do you think the roads will be icy in Suffolk early Saturday morning?

  8. Jennifer says:

    I work in VA Beach but live in South Mills, NC. About 15-20 miles north of Elizabeth City. 15 mins from the state line. I will be leaving around 4:30pm, will I be dealing with just snow, ice or a mixture more than likely? Thank you in advance!

  9. Marc says:

    Is the midday update still coming out? Also if you could please tell me if you still think the Eastern Shore around the Onancock area will get any accumulating snow?

  10. Brian says:

    I dont see 2-4″. 1/2″ is more the likely out of this event. It appears the heaviest snow was falling in Rocky Mount are of NC. Isle of Wight will be lucky to see 1/2″

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