Almost Done…Then On To Friday’s SnowJanuary 24th, 2013 at 1:19 pm by Jeremy Wheeler under Weather
We had some lingering snow showers today around the late morning and midday hours. Here is Super Doppler 10 from around midday.
This snow should taper off in the next hour or two. It looks like it is already doing so from north to south. Today’s system was from both an upper level trough and a very weak surface low. The surface low has moved offshore and has drug a strong cold front through Hampton Roads. High pressure is building in behind this, and so the winds are really picking up with the strong pressure gradient. We are seeing wind gusts up to 35mph. I even saw one gust to 40mph. With the temperatures in the 20s, this is dropping the wind chills to near the single digits.
We will dry up later this afternoon with gradual clearing. Tonight will be mostly clear to partly cloudy with lows in the upper teens to low 20s. Winds should taper off.
Tomorrow another area of low pressure will move through at the surface. Also a strong trough will lie overhead. Moisture is expected to move in again from the southwest.
So we are looking at another chance for snow; a better chance actually. The problem tomorrow is that a very thin layer of warmer air at about 3,000-6,000 ft is going to try to push up from North Carolina. This may create a a thin area of freezing rain. The NAM model is suggesting this as I look at it on Bufkit (a program that displays the different layers of the models). The northward extent of this mixing layer could easily change the snowfall amounts. For now it looks like the mix zone will reach up to just near the state line. A small jog to the north or south though will have a big impact. So looking at the latest models this is what Jeff and I have come up with with a snowfall forecast. This is from 2pm Friday until about 11pm tomorrow night.
Notice that the purple are of 2-4″ is rather large. There may be some heavy wet snow just north of the mix line. If that happens then we will have to increase the 1-2″. I put the Snow Machine up to an 80% for accumulating snow.
Here is what our model, Future Trak, shows for 3pm tomorrow afternoon:
It starts things off as snow with temperatures to support it. However, It brings the upper level warm layer in around 10pm tomorrow night. I think it has too much rain, and it should be more mix, but still….
Again blue is snow, pink is mix and possibly some freezing rain, green is rain. So as usual…it’s another fun forecast for Hampton Roads.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler