Almost Done…Then On To Friday’s Snow

January 24th, 2013 at 1:19 pm by under Weather

We had some lingering snow showers today around the late morning and midday hours.  Here is Super Doppler 10 from around midday.

Super Doppler 10 (Midday)

This snow should taper off in the next hour or two.  It looks like it is already doing so from north to south.  Today’s system was from both an upper level trough and a very weak surface low.  The surface low has moved offshore and has drug a strong cold front through Hampton Roads.  High pressure is building in behind this, and so the winds are really picking up with the strong pressure gradient.  We are seeing wind gusts up to 35mph.  I even saw one gust to 40mph.  With the temperatures in the 20s, this is dropping the wind chills to near the single digits.

We will dry up later this afternoon with gradual clearing.  Tonight will be mostly clear to partly cloudy with lows in the upper teens to low 20s. Winds should taper off.

Tomorrow another area of low pressure will move through at the surface.  Also a strong trough will lie overhead.  Moisture is expected to move in again from the southwest.

Tomorrow’s Forecast

So we are looking at another chance for snow;  a better chance actually.  The problem tomorrow is that a very thin layer of warmer air at about 3,000-6,000 ft is going to try to push up from North Carolina.  This may create a a thin area of freezing rain.  The NAM model is suggesting this as I look at it on Bufkit (a program that displays the different layers of the models).  The northward extent of this mixing layer could easily change the snowfall amounts.  For now it looks like the mix zone will reach up to just near the state line.   A small jog to the north or south though will have a big impact.  So looking at the latest models this is what Jeff and I have come up with with a snowfall forecast.  This is from 2pm Friday until about 11pm tomorrow night.

Snow Forecast (Friday)

Notice that the purple are of 2-4″ is rather large.  There may be some heavy wet snow just north of the mix line.  If that happens then we will have to increase the 1-2″.  I put the Snow Machine up to an 80% for accumulating snow.

Here is what our model, Future Trak, shows for 3pm tomorrow afternoon:

Future Trak (3pm Friday)

It starts things off as snow with temperatures to support it.  However, It brings the upper level warm layer in around 10pm tomorrow night.  I think it has too much rain, and it should be more mix, but still….

Futre Trak (10pm Friday)

Again blue is snow, pink is mix and possibly some freezing rain, green is rain.  So as usual…it’s another fun forecast for Hampton Roads.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

13 Responses to “Almost Done…Then On To Friday’s Snow”

  1. Joseph R says:

    Keep up the great work guys! Just one quick question. If the low does end up tracking 50 miles north, what would that mean for the Williamsburg area in terms of snow?

    1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

      Hard to say Joseph, because if that were to happen, then the mix line would probabaly move 50 miles north as well. I’d say for now it looks like you will be out of the mix zone and into the snow. GFS isn’t as impressive for you. Maybe an inch or a little more. NAM is still pretty impressive. Jeremy

  2. Andy says:

    I’ll take the 2-4 inches if that line gets shifted a few more inches to the southern part of VB lol, but not gonna believe it until I see it.

  3. Chris S says:

    Come on Jeremy, it wouldn’t be Hampton Roads if it wasn’t a “fun forecast” ^.^

    Thanks to you and everyone else for these great blogs!

  4. Jeff says:

    Just a novice’s observation here. It seems as if like you stated about heavy wet snow just north of the mix line is going to happen according to the NAM at least. What’s your thinking in having to up the 1-2″ for the rest of Hampton Roads?

    1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

      Hi Jeff. Low confidence in that 1-2 right now. The NAM has a tight gradient between heavy wet snow and the mix zone. Especially for the southside. I do think that the Peninsula still has a good shot at snow though with only a slight chance for the mix. Jeremy

      1. Jeff says:

        Alright sounds good! Appreciate the reply! Y’all keep up the good work.

  5. DA says:

    BAM!! Once again, I think you guys are gonna be right-on with Friday’s forecast. It looks like with the strong High pressure overhead early in the day would equate to subsidence and dry air. It would take a while for the low (near surface) levels to moisten up and I think snow will not start until about 4pm (although I wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot of Virga on the radar earlier in the afternoon). This is more of a WAA (Warm air advection/upper-level forcing especially seen on 850mb) type than your standard surface level low pressure system. Either way, I agree, still cold enough for snow north of the state line. A blend between GFS and NAM would yield 1″-4″ but I’m betting (poor choice of verbage) more towards (for the metro areas) the 2″-3″ (isolated areas to 4″ at worst case) falling between 4pm until 10 or 11pm, with the bulk picking up between 4:30-5pm through about 9pm, lighter intensities then until 10 or 11pm. Regardless, still right in-line with your was the case in last week’s system.

    You guys Rock! Unfortunetly, you have to deal with some people who will argue about if you’re off by even 1″, or comparing to what other media outlets are saying, or if you don’t mention their specific subdivision or community within the broader city or region. Not sure how you can deal with the patience. I could never do it.

    1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

      Thanks DA. Good analysis. Thanks for the kudos too. Jeremy

  6. Jeff says:

    Strange that Gloucester isn’t included in the new winter weather advisory from the NWS. Think we’ll be too far to the north for this one?

  7. Ashley says:

    I was hoping for one “good” (aka completely covers the grass) snow this Winter. I live in West Chesapeake. Is there any chance of that happening tomorrow, or is the prediction still for 1-2 inches at most?

  8. Clint says:

    How much snow do u think the northern part of Virginia beach could get if it stayed all snow

  9. C. Dance says:

    The kids and I were really bummed last week when we didn’t get any snow. As you can imagine we are “dancing tonight”!

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