Snowfall Update

January 23rd, 2013 at 1:10 pm by under Weather

After looking at the latest computer model data early this afternoon, not much has changed with the overall thinking with this quick moving upper level storm system. This system is currently producing light snow across portions of Illinois and Indiana. But when looking at just radar data, it looks like moderate to heavy snow is falling across the Midwest.

Snow Falling Across Midwest

This can be very misleading, which is why this forecast is so tricky. Very dry air is in place all across the Midwest. Dewpoints are in the single digits or below zero, which indicates extremely dry air at the surface. While we have moisture in the middle levels of the atmosphere, this dry air at the surface is causing some of the snow to evaporate before reaching the ground. This is why your snow reports are so crucial, otherwise we do not have any ground truth to what is actually happening.

Current Dewpoints -Very Dry Air in Place

Our latest Future Trak model is trending farther south with the snow early Thursday morning. This makes sense because most of the snow is falling south of the upper level disturbance in the Midwest. So, this trend should continue when it moves across Virginia.  Both the NAM and the GFS models focus more of the snow towards the Northern Neck.  In fact the latest NAM decreases the snow chances for the Southside and North Carolina, but keeps the chances up around Reedville and Parksley.  We think our Future Trak model is overdoing the snowfall because it is not taking into account the amount of dry air at the surface.

Future Trak at 5AM Thurs

We have made a few adjustments to the snowfall forecast. The best chance for accumulating snow will be north of the Peninsula. The Middle Peninsula, Northern Neck and the Eastern Shore could see 0.5″-1.5″ of snow. The snow should begin an hour or two before midnight tonight across the northern areas and then move from north to south early Thursday morning. Hampton Roads cities, including the Peninsula, the Southside and N.E. North Carolina could see a dusting to about 0.5″ of snow. It will be cold enough for the snow to stick to grassy areas and roadways. So we may see some delays or slow downs during your Thursday morning commute. Don Slater will be in tonight to give you the latest on the potential accumulations. Stay tuned!

Updated Snow Forecast

Meteorologists: Tiffany Savona & Jeremy Wheeler

14 Responses to “Snowfall Update”

  1. Chris S says:

    Thanks for these blogs, I really love the detail you guys go into in them!

    Oh and let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!

  2. Jeff says:

    Thanks for the update Jeremy! I’ll be interested to see what happens with the potential Friday snow, but either way it looks like we’ll still be waiting for another “big” snow. I guess that’s something that we usually only see every couple years around here.

  3. Chelsea says:

    Why use “1/2″ instead of “0.5″ especially when that is the way it is written elsewhere on the map? The “/” is almost impossible to read, which makes this map incredibly confusing.

    1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

      Sorry Chelsea. It is smaller when we capture it. So I apologize. I will keep that in mind tomorrow when I redo the graphic, and for potential use for Friday. Jeremy

  4. Virginia Greene says:

    Good afternoon! I work at Norge Elementary up here in Toano, Va. We have exams this week and our students around here are on 1/2 day schedule. What are the accumilations for our area here. Thank you for the great job you do.

    1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

      For now you are in the half inch up to an inch range Virginia. This time I think the higher amounts will be to your east whereas last week the higher amounts were over towards you. Jeremy

  5. Clint says:

    Do you think it’s possible that we could get more than .5??? And on Friday every one keeps going back and forth between rain then snow and just snow which one do u think it is and if its all snow how much do u think it will be?

    1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

      Hi Clint. Odds are that we’ll max out around a half inch on the southside and the southern part of the Peninsula. In fact the latest models outside of ours shows most of the snow from the Peninsula northward. Some areas up there can get up to an an inch and a half. That goes for Middle Peninsula, Northern Neck, and Eastern Shore. This dry air will be tough to overcome tomorrow. Jeremy

  6. Justin says:

    In chesapeake on thurday how much do you think we will get? And how much on Friday?

  7. Kat R says:

    How about Gloucester area?

  8. AJ says:

    Does VDOT apply ANTI-ICING treatments to the highways, and if so do they reapply during the morning commute?

    1. AJ says:

      in the Hampton Roads Area

  9. Lisa Marie says:

    very confusing at first to look at snowfall chart……I mistook 1/2″ to be 1-2 inches since you used 0.5″ above in the chart.

  10. Tanya says:

    It is really snowing here in West Point, VA

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