Update On Our Snow Chances For Tonight

January 17th, 2013 at 1:19 pm by under Weather

Who wants snow? I don’t think many of us will see much to anything but there may be hope for the snow lovers out there. Most of the computer models still bring in a chance for some accumulating snowfall tonight:

Future Trak @ 2am

After midnight is still the time-frame when we will see the change from rain to snowfall. When it starts to snow most of the flakes will melt on contact since the ground temperatures are between 40 and 45 degrees.

Future Trak @ 4am

It is going to be difficult to really see much of any snow stick across the Southside if the warm air sticks around.

Snow Totals for Tonight

Now one thing to remember, this snow is only going to accumulate to these totals around 4-6am. After that we will see the snow continue to melt thanks to the warm ground. Many of us will see the grass/wet conditions by 7-8am tomorrow morning. As for the roads we will only see accumulations for areas north of Newport News. I believe I-64 will just stay wet overnight, but the side streets may get slick for a few hours before sunrise tomorrow. For the latest on the roads check VDOT.

After the snow moves out of our area we will see sunshine and a cold wind out of the north to keep our temperatures in the upper-30s for highs tomorrow.

 

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson

 

35 Responses to “Update On Our Snow Chances For Tonight”

  1. Cody says:

    Jeff,

    You guys are downplaying this storm and I am a bit shocked. I live in York County and am under a winter storm warning for 2-4.” Have you not read wakefields discussion on how intense snow will be when it comes through so it will overcome the warm ground? Also, Why would they issue a WWA for Southside and NE NC for “flurries? I have seen heavy snow overcome a warm ground in MANY storms.

    1. Jeff Edmondson WAVY says:

      The reason why is because the models are trending for smaller accumulations. The latest GFS has virtually nothing! I have read Wakefield’s discussions and I believe that this storm and moisture is going to move out faster than they say…thus we will get less snow to accumulate.

      1. Bobby says:

        ohhh snap, you just schooled that guy.

        This is jeff’s house son,
        booya

      2. Cody says:

        You really hug the GFS model within 10 hours of an event??? LOL!! Why don’t you try the 18z nam?? The better short range models also show more snow….

        1. Jeff Edmondson WAVY says:

          I was mostly using the SREF and the 4km NAM.

    2. Lynn says:

      Cody,
      I am with you on the downplay of this storm. I saw the forecast on http://www.google.org/publicalerts/alert?aid=3f9fd73ebbf5db16&hl=en&gl=US&source=web early this afternoon and am right now looking at what was warned of at that time.I am in Newport News on the James River and I am looking at accumulation on surface roads, sidewalks, and parking lots.

      So, I ask Jeff, what happened to all that “ground heat” that was supposed to prevent accumulation on those surfaces?

      1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

        Hmmm Hi Lynn. I think you and Cody may want to get together and try to make a snowball at 7am. Maybe a slushball. We did have melting across the region as expected and we do not have 3-5 inches on the ground anywhere in Hampton Roads. Newport News may have a little more than an inch on the grass. Maybe more up towards James City County. Many areas have nothing…Jeremy

        1. Chris says:

          I love this time of season. All these people arguing with the pro’s and getting owned…SO FUNNY!!

  2. Wally says:

    Tidewater viewers don’t listen to nothing they say. ..BC they say nothing we’ll get a foot. …they say accumulations well get nothing. …plan Friday as regular day

    1. Mike G says:

      Yes regular day indeed. It does seem though Wavy was much more accurate 3 days ago… still accurate without change. Compared to louzy WVEC expecting up to three inches yesterday for VA Beach. I gave up on WVEC forecasters after the orange hair girl started 3 or so years ago. A+ Wavy.

  3. Chris says:

    Why do people get so butt-hurt over these forecasts…it’s snow, who cares.

  4. Jim says:

    It doesn’t snow here people get over it

    1. me says:

      It snowed three times two years ago, and there was a big snowfall three years ago.

  5. Jim says:

    Get over it people it does not snow here! I am very suprised that it isn’t 60 degrees outside right now. If there is one thing you can count on in this area is that it can be cold, snow will head this way and push warm air out ahead of it. Then it will get cold after the snow moves out.

  6. Andrew says:

    Hoping to see just a little snow. Like it when everythings white for a short time but then it can go so tomorrow will be perfect if you get that. Don’t need it on the roads because commute would be wicked sick bad.

  7. Jeff says:

    Understood. How about the last run of each? NAM now has around 6″? Just trying to understand

  8. Jordan says:

    I’m originally from as far north as you can go in the continental US, and this is the first time I’ve seen a winter storm warning for less than 6 inches of accumulation. In my experience this is a winter weather advisory. It’s all going to melt by 8am, so I say enjoy the flakes as they fall. I’m baking cookies to appease the snow gods. :)

    1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

      Remember Jordan. Winter Storm Warning criteria varies by region. Jeremy.

  9. Stephanie says:

    What are your thoughts on the latest 18Z NAM? They are showing more snow for us..

  10. Sandra says:

    Thanks for the update, Jeff!

  11. Scottie says:

    If the 18Z NAM pans out, WAVY will have a LOT of egg on their faces…

    1. Jeff Edmondson WAVY says:

      Looks like we could save those eggs and make omelets this morning. :)

      1. Chris says:

        Ha, love these winter blogs….so entertaining.

      2. Cody says:

        I used to watch wavy until they started downplaying events. I miss Jon Cash. Woke up with about 1.5 inches in Yorktown and it stuck on roads last night. WHAT?? I thought surfaces were too warm.

        1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

          Hey Cody. Weren’t you calling for 3-5 inches for this whole area? We were calling for about an inch up there in Yorktown. Mostly on grass. And we didn’t have too many reports of it on the roads up there. At least not for long. You must be pretty rural. By the way, there was basically nothing on the whole southside except for Suffolk. A little on some grassy areas. I think Jon called for snow all the way down to the Outer Banks….???? Jeremy

        2. Cody says:

          Jeremy,

          Don’t put words in my mouth as I was NOT calling for 3-5″ and they showed on Wavy TV late that night that snow was sticking on the roads.

  12. Matt says:

    I was just looking at the NAM 18z, and they’re showing 6-8 in. now for most of the peninsula, middle pen. and nothern neck. Little bands that stretch down through the southside from that bullseye dropping from 6 in. to a dusting by the ocean front. The GFS like you mentioned shows almost nothing for us.

    I’ve seen both sides of the coin, where the local forecast is well short of the actual amount we get, or forecast for accumulation and hardly getting anything. Lots of factors in this storm and it will be interesting to see how it turns out. I noticed this morning that the NAM was close to agreement with the GFS in the dialing back on the totals for our area, but this 18z NAM has the biggest totals for our area that I’ve seen yet.

  13. Marc says:

    Jeff that is a inaccurate statement. Have you not looked at the lastest NAM model and other short range models? They have actually increased the snowfall amounts for our area. So where in the world your getting this trending smaller accumulations is beyond me. Secondly even though the ground temps as of now are between 40-50 once the cold air gets here and the wet snow (which in itself is below 40) will drop the ground temps and if it gets colder than forecast then that also can change the end result. The point I’m trying to make is the models aren’t trending less and being a resident here for over 20 years I’ve seen local Mets downplay a snowstorm and then during the event they are increasing the snow amounts every hour. Actually in 2004 the forecasted amounts went from 1-2 to 8 inches by the time the storm was finished.

    1. Jeff Edmondson WAVY says:

      I was looking at the 18z 4km nam which decreased the snow for our area. Not the regular nam.

  14. Shel says:

    Just like they told us last weekend would be sunny and mid 70s. Yep, I don’t believe anything they say either.

    1. melissa says:

      Agreed!!!!!!!! Until it actually happens i cant believe a word its all predictions to me

  15. Renee says:

    I have been watching the weather channel mostly and logged into Wavy10 to see if the forecast was the same and was surprised to see that it was completely different. I don’t care one way or another whether or not we get snow, but it seems like Wavy10 is making a mistake in telling viewers that we probably won’t get much of anything. We could very well get a lot of snow. Many of the residents here aren’t prepared for snow since we rarely see any and it’s foolish to let folks think that is nothing more than a dusting. I really hope Wavy is right about this.

  16. Caroline says:

    Please, please come up with some snow in Portsmouth tonight. ‘See what you can do.

    It is lovely. I am from Minnesota and SO MUCH miss the winter season.

  17. [...] Edmondson wrote an earlier blog that described the situation pretty well.  I have seen heavy snow overcome a warm ground around [...]

  18. DA says:

    I’m with Jeff and the WAVY team on this one. For those of you seeing 5-6″ on the NAM 18Z…you have to consider that the changeover probably won’t happen until ~06Z (1am EST) for the southside (maybe midnight for Hamp-NN). Sure a good chance of heavier rain by about 03Z (10pm) with some snow mixing in closer to midnight. So much of those amounts will be liquid. So you need to see what would fall beyond 06Z (6-hr precip ending at 12Z) or (3-hr precip ending at 09Z). Prior to 06Z, 850 temps = or > 0°C and 1000-850 thick > 1310. Too warm for pure snow. My guess is that about 0.10 liquid (~1 inch snow “IF”
    it sticks) (from what NAM shows..which is a model of course and not necessarily perfect by all means) during 06Z-09Z time frame (1am-4am) and then still only colder surfaces (parked cars, patio tables, grass, etc). I wouldn’t be surprised if those big heavy flakes fall for about 30 minutes during changeover but will it stick at that time. Rapid drying occurs beyond 09Z as
    evident at 850mb so everything ends by 4am or so. A dusting to half inch was my thoughts (for VB/southside) since yesterday, (little more for the peninsula Hamp/NN folks maybe 1″ or 2″ at most). Also, look at the observations at RIC. They started reporing mix RASN at 2337Z (let’s call it 00Z) which matches well with 850 temps of < 0°C and 1310dm 1000-850 thickness. An hour later and still reporting a mix. Really, only thing to do now is sit and wait and see what happens.

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