2012 Rain… And Possible Wintry Mix TomorrowJanuary 1st, 2013 at 7:39 am by Jeremy Wheeler under Weather
Well 2012 is over. Now we look ahead to 2013. Snow-lovers are really hoping for more of a wintry year than the warmer/drier Winter of 2011/2012. We may see some snow try to sneak into the forecast for tomorrow morning, but it will be more of a brief mix than a big deal. It will be too warm for snow today. We’ve already seen some scattered light showers this morning.
These showers will continue as the moisture continues to pool-in from the southwest through the afternoon. With the clouds and the increasing showers, temperatures will be stuck in the mid-upper 40s all day.
Tonight the rain will stick around, but will become more scattered. The cold front (shown above) will push south and will meet up with the moisture. This will allow for a brief changeover to the Wintry mix between 3am and 8am just north of the metro. Here is a snapshot of our computer model (Future Trak) at 7am:
This is an update from yesterday’s forecast. Basically the moisture will be lingering long enough for the cold air to arrive, whereas before it looked like the dry air would move in a little sooner. Even with the colder air though most of the surface temperatures will be above freezing. So I don’t think anything will stick except for a few cities where some grassy surfaces could get a dusting. The most likely cities to see any light snow will be from Williamsburg over to Poquoson, and all of the Middle Peninsula over to Accomack county. Possibly a little on the Northern Neck, but drier air will probably work in there first. Northampton county, VA and the southside may see a few flakes mixing in with the rain, but I doubt it would be more than that. Nothing is expected in North Carolina except cold rain. While there is some model agreement, keep in mind that the models may change again by this evening. Don Slater will be in tonight with our updated Future Trak Model. By tomorrow afternoon the dry air will work-in, and so we’ll see partly cloudy skies and highs in the low 40s.
2 weak areas of low pressure will pass offshore between Thursday and Sunday. At this time it looks like almost all of the moisture will be offshore as well. With this progressive pattern though and cooling temperatures, it is only a matter of time before we see higher chances for snow. Maybe in the next 2-3 weeks. Stay tuned!
In terms of rainfall, we have been wet recently. For 2012, Norfolk picked up 48.35″ of rain.
Many locations along the coast ended up with higher than average precipitation whereas many inland and northwest locations fell way behind on annual rainfall. Take a looks at Wallops Island which was well above the average:
It has been mentioned that 2012 will probably be the warmest year on record in Richmond and Norfolk. December may also be the warmest for those cities, but we did have some very recent cooling. So that will get tallied up soon, and we’ll get the official numbers-in from the National Weather service.
Happy New Year!
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler