Chill Around Now…How About Snow This Year?

November 26th, 2012 at 9:22 am by under Weather

This last weekend was very chilly for this time of year.  We were in the upper 40s both days, but at least it was a dry chill.  The short-term forecast isn’t much warmer.  In fact we will be back in the upper 40s in the next few days.  Today we’ll see mostly sunny skies as high pressure sits nearby.  Winds will be light and variable.  (Finally!)   There is a cold front to the west, but it won’t even get close to Hampton Roads today.

Weather Map Today

Tomorrow a thin band of moisture will creep along the front into our region.  The models aren’t showing much in terms of rainfall.  Maybe a quarter inch with a few locations up to a half inch.  Our model (Future Trak) has scattered showers for most of the day, but the other models showed mostly afternoon/evening showers.  Highs will be in the 50s.  Behind the front we will quickly  dry out and cool down.  Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be in the upper 40s while the lows will be in the 30s and 20s.  It does look like we will warm up next weekend a bit.

So in the long term many folks are wondering about snow.  Things are looking promising for snow this year.  The snowpack is building across Siberia.  This has been a new forecasting tool for climate that has gotten a lot of attention lately.

Snow Analysis Over Asia

Unlike last year, there is also a decent snowpack building over the Northern U.S. already.

Current U.S. Snowpack

Along with these features it also looks like the Arctic Oscillation is going negative while the North Atlantic Oscillation looks to go fairly neutral (negative would be more favorable). See the Patterns and Oscillations from NOAA.  El Nino has been a little finicky over the last year, so the jury is still out on that.

So it’s early still, and I don’t think we’ll see much of anything before Christmas. We’ll definitely see what the mid-Winter will bring though.  There’s no doubt we have a better chance than last year with some of the above mentioned.  The drought in the central U.S. will probably play a part as well.  Stay tuned!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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