Windy And Rainy Mess…Plus Snow??

November 7th, 2012 at 9:01 am by under Weather

Wow!  2012 has been a banner year for weather.  Hasn’t it?  Now we are continuing with the crazy weather, and yes…I said snow in the title. Let’s talk about it.  We started the day with strong northerly winds and scattered rain showers.  The area of low pressure has formed and was sitting offshore as expected.


Generally, the models agree that the system will continue to strengthen and move to our north through tonight and early tomorrow.

Low Pressure Area Heads North

One or two of the models do hang the low back a bit and even push it back to the west.  But they agree that the system will push east by midday Thursday.  On the backside there will be lots of moisture, and this is where our rain and wintry mix will come from.  That and the upper level trough that lies overhead.

We may see some wintry mix north of the metro today.  This will be snowflakes and/or some ice pellets mixing in with the rain showers.   Some of it will sink a little more to the south tonight.  Possibly down to the Peninsula and Southside.  Again…temperatures will be above freezing and the ground will be wet.  So it should all melt.  However, up between Richmond and the Northern Neck temps will probably be cold enough for a little to stick on grassy surfaces.

Future Trak (11pm)

We’ll see a little bit of leftovers tomorrow morning, but then we’ll dry out during the afternoon.  The low will push out to sea, and we’ll get some sunshine in here as the day goes on.

There will be a little tidal flooding in the region.  It shouldn’t be too bad though.  The Outer Banks is expected to stay below the minor tidal flooding threshold.  The forecast water level for Duck, NC is 4.6 ft.  Minor tidal flooding starts around 5ft.  Sewell’s Point, which is a good representative of the Chesapeake Bay, is also expected to stay below minor tidal flooding.

Sewell’s Point

Finally, Wachapreague on the Eastern Shore will probably see minor tidal flooding.  Possibly up to  moderate around Chincoteague.  Here is the forecast for Wachapreague as we do have a model for that city:

Wachapreague Tide Forecast

The high tide will occur between 1-3pm today and 2-4 am tomorrow.  The tides may stay up a bit Thursday evening, but I think they will drop more than forecast with the northwest winds.

We have had about a half inch of rain in the region.  We will have about another half inch up to an inch of rain.  Probably closer to a half inch.

So we still aren’t expecting too many impacts here locally, but the northeast states are bracing for a rough 18 hours.  Keep your fingers crossed and/or say a prayer for the recovering folks between here and there. At least we are looking at a very nice weekend with some warmer temperatures on the way.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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