Election Forecast And The Nor’easter Update

November 6th, 2012 at 9:02 am by under Weather

It was chilly this morning across the area.  Folks that sat in lines to vote had to sit in temperatures in the 30s and 40s.

Temperatures This Morning

We won’t warm up that much today as the clouds have already rolled in and winds will be from the northeast at 10-15mph with gusts up to 25mph.  We’ll have a struggle to get into the low/mid 50s except for northeast North Carolina.  The timing of the coastal system has sped up.  So today’s forecast has been changed.  Instead of increasing clouds, we’ll just see mostly cloudy skies.  There are already some showers over central North Carolina.  So the rain also looks like it will move in sooner.

Satellite/Radar

The low itself is south of Georgia, but the warmer air and moisture is overrunning the chilly weather over our region.  We are expecting a few showers to move in by late this afternoon into the evening.  Tomorrow we are still calling for scattered to occasional showers, but the models have backed off the rain totals a bit.  I’m forecasting about a half inch up to 1.5 inches of rain.  Mostly near the coast.  The winds will pick up today out of the northeast, but by tonight the winds will be more out of the north.  Gusts will be up to 30mph, but a few gusts to 35mph will be possible on the Eastern Shore.

The low will be offshore from Hampton Roads by a couple hundred miles tomorrow.

Offshore Low

The models have not only trended faster, but also a bit more offshore.  Which is one of the reasons that we’re backing things down a little since yesterday.  The tides for example look to barely get up to minor tidal flooding.   Sewell’s Point for instance is forecast to get between 4.2-4.4ft.  Minor tidal flooding doesn’t even start until about 5ft. So that will just be nuisance type flooding unless the forecast changes dramatically.

Tide Forecast (Sewell’s Point)

Duck, NC is forecast to be between 3.5-4.5 ft.  Minor tidal flooding starts at about 5.5ft.  Wachapreague is forecast to rise to about 6 feet.  Minor tidal flooding there starts around 6.5ft.  However, the tide may be higher up towards Chincoteague.  The high tide will be between 1-3pm Wednesday and 2-4am on Thursday morning.  So overall no big impacts expected from tidal flooding at this time.

Behind the system there will be some cold air.  A strip of snow will be possible from Pennsylvania down to northern Virginia and parts of Maryland.  I still don’t think we’ll see any sticking snow in our area, but I wouldn’t rule out a few flakes mixing-in with the rain early Thursday morning in some of our northern cities/counties.

After that we are looking great going into the weekend.  Sunshine and highs in the 60s.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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