Election Day, Then Post Election StormNovember 5th, 2012 at 9:03 am by Jeremy Wheeler under Weather
The temperatures have been chilly lately. Yesterday, we had lots of clouds, a few showers, and highs were only in the upper 40s. Then last night we finally had some clearing, but that allowed the temperatures to drop to the upper 30s this morning. Today we’ll have more sunshine, but highs will only reach the low 50s as we’ll develop northerly winds at 10-15mph.
Tomorrow we will stay dry for election day. We had some rain in previous election forecasts, but we’ve pushed it back into Wednesday now. Temperatures will be very chilly in the morning if you have to wait in line to vote. Temps will be in the 30s and 40s early. Then we’ll get into the low/mid 50s during the afternoon.
By Wednesday we will be monitoring for an area of low pressure to develop along the coasts of the Carolinas. It will be weak at first, but will strengthen as it moves northeast.
Since the system will just start developing along our coast, the impacts shouldn’t be too big here. The setup is that a big trough in the upper levels will migrate towards the southeast coast. A core of stronger upper level winds or a jetstreak will move over the North Carolina coast by Wednesday morning.
This is a common occurrence this time of year. The upper level trough will help to drop the surface pressure due to the upper level flow. This will happen Wednesday morning, and then it will push away by Wednesday evening. Winds will develop out of the northeast at about 15-20mph with gusts between 35-40mph near the coast. However, this will be a short-term event unlike Sandy. It will also be a very weak system (locally) unlike Sandy. By the afternoon the winds will already shift from northeasterly to northwesterly. The GFS and European models are in fairly good agreement on moving the system up the coast. The NAM, however, has it moving farther offshore with very little impacts. The European has been pretty consistent, so there is a little more faith in that model for now. By Wednesday afternoon/evening our local winds will be solid out of the northwest. The low will intensify somewhere off of the coast of the northeast states. If you follow the latest track of the low from the European, then there will probably be more northwest winds from the system over the northeast states than a northeast wind. So I almost want to call this thing a northwester, which isn’t technically correct but more representative.
So to sum up…The latest impacts forecast for Hampton Roads include northeast then northwest winds at 15-20mph with gusts up to 40mph near the coast. 1-2″ of rain mostly near the coast. It should taper off sharply as you go inland. Finally we are looking at some minor tidal flooding of 1-2ft above normal. Remember though, Sandy ran about 3-4ft above normal during a full moon. So the flooding shouldn’t be that bad. The latest water level rise forecast for Sewell’s Point for instance is about 4.3ft. Minor tidal flooding begins around 5ft. Sandy got up to 6.8ft. So if we are lucky, then this will be a non-event. Keep your fingers crossed. Especially folks that had damage from Sandy’s flooding.
On the backside of the system there will be some very chilly air. In fact…there will be a strip of snow behind it that could reach as far south as Virginia. This would happen early Thursday morning. The surface temps would probably be too cold for snow here, but maybe a few flakes could mix in with the showers in the northern parts of the viewing area. Stay tuned!
At least next weekend looks great. Sunshine and highs in the upper 60s. Maybe we’ll even see some 70s.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler