Coastal Storm UpdateNovember 4th, 2012 at 10:56 pm by Tiffany Savona WAVY under Uncategorized, Weather
Models are now coming into better agreement on what we can expect with our next coastal storm. As Jeff mentioned in his blog this morning, this storm is still very far away. The trough, or upper level low pressure, is currently diving into the Northern Plains at this point. This energy is going to combine with an area of low pressure which is going to develop off the South Carolina and Georgia coast on Tuesday. This coastal storm is going to strengthen as it moves north feeding off of the warmer water in the Atlantic Ocean. Most of your Tuesday (Election Day) should be dry. Clouds will be increasing and we could see a few showers develop late Tuesday night. This storm will stay offshore, but will be closest to SE Virginia and NE North Carolina on Wednesday. Therefore, rain chances will be the highest on Wednesday and winds will also be the strongest. Here is the setup:
Rain totals will range from 1-2 inches with higher totals possible closer to the coast. Winds will be sustained between 20-30mph with higher gusts possible, especially for coastal areas. Keep in mind that we could still see some changes to the track of this storm. A few models have this storm tracking a bit more to the east, which means we would see less rain and less wind. If this storm tracks closer to the coast, then winds could be stronger and rainfall totals could be higher. It all depends.
I know tidal flooding raises some concerns for folks, especially those that had water damage from Sandy. Right now, it looks like we may see some minor tidal flooding, but nothing more than that. Tides will be the highest between 1-3pm Wednesday afternoon. Winds will be blowing out of the northeast early Wednesday morning, but then should shift more out of the north and northwest by the afternoon, which would limit the tidal flooding. Below are a few graphics showing the forecast peak tides for Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning for 3 different locations.
Minor tidal flooding can occur at 5 ft at Sewells Point. High tide on Wednesday is at 2:46 PM and tide levels are forecast to be right around 5ft. So, minor tidal flooding may occur at Sewells Point Wednesday afternoon. Then the tides really fall by the next high tide Thursday morning.
High tide at Kiptopeke is at 2:11 PM Wednesday afternoon. Tides are forecast to reach 4.87 ft, which is slightly above the threshold for minor tidal flooding (4.5 ft). So, tidal flooding will be a possibility for the Eastern Shore Wednesday afternoon.
High tide at Duck, NC will be at 1:00 PM on Wednesday. Notice that tides should reach just over 5 ft, but still remain under the threshold for minor flooding.
If we are going to see any tidal flooding, it will probably be along the Eastern Shore on Wednesday. Remember, this is what the forecast looks like right now, but things can change over the next few days. We will continue to keep you posted.
-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona