Tropical Depression # 18 Forms

October 22nd, 2012 at 2:37 pm by under Uncategorized, Weather

Tropical Depression # 18 has formed in the  Caribbean Sea  just south of Jamaica. Maximum sustained winds are at 30mph and the storm is nearly stationary. The Hurricane Hunters are going to be flying into this storm this afternoon to gather more information. If they find the pressure dropping and wind speeds increasing, then Tropical Depression #18 may be upgraded to a tropical storm by the 5pm advisory. The next name on the list would be Sandy.

Tropical Satellite

 

Computer Model Tracks

The afternoon computer model tracks did not change too much compared to this morning’s runs. Most of the models still take this system out to sea once it moves over Jamaica and Cuba. Notice that the Canadian model (yellow line) is the outlier here taking this system on a more westward track, closer to the East Coast. The latest Canadian model run (not shown on the map above) is still an outlier, but takes this storm a little bit more to the east. Hopefully, this trend will continue. The European model should update over the next few hours.

So there are still a lot of questions that need to be answered. Will this system survive after traveling over Jamaica and Cuba? If it does, the track of the storm is going to really depend on the timing of our next cold front. Right now it looks like the cold front will move in sometime this weekend. If the front slows down, then there would be a better chance for Tropical Depression #18 to get closer to us. The models will continue to change over the next few days, so stay tuned. We will be tracking…

Meteorologist: Tiffany Savona

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