Remember When?

September 28th, 2012 at 8:09 am by under Weather

I’m old enough to remember the good old days when a meteorologist would just say…” There’s a chance for a few showers on that day”, and not have to outline every hour of rainfall for the timeframe.  The models seemed to agree more often then, and despite their lower resolution at least seemed to be more consistent.  I’m not sure if it’s the higher resolution, the model physics, the weather pattern, or just me; but it seems like the weather has been a lot tougher to forecast over the last year.  Don’t get me wrong! I like detailing a forecast for folks, but when the models disagree and come in with different solutions for each run, then it makes the timing very tough.  That is the case this weekend with a very slow moving front which will probably become stationary near the region.  Today the front is north of us, but it will slowly creep to the southeast.

Today’s Forecast

Most of the day will not see rain here, but late in the day (mostly towards the evening) we’ll see some scattered showers move in.  It’s only about a 20-30% chance this evening, but a few football games will get wet in the region.  Tonight into tomorrow the rain chances pick up.  I’ve increased tomorrow’s rain chance up to 70%.  It won’t be a washout.  Especially with all of the dry conditions that we’ve had recently.  It will probably dry up some of the rain as it moves in from the west.  Again…the timing has been tough though.  For now I think late tonight into early tomorrow is a good bet for rain with a letup around midday tomorrow.  Rain develops again late Saturday into Sunday morning.  I’m hoping Sunday afternoon lets up a bit.

Tomorrow’s Forecast

For now the models take a break from the rain on Monday and pick it up again Tuesday and Wednesday.  Even this information has been changing though.  Stay tuned for more updates as there will be changes. That I can promise.

No big updates to tropical storm Nadine, but it has strengthened to 70mph.  Hopefully she dies a dignified death over the weekend.  Have a good one!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 

2 Responses to “Remember When?”

  1. John M Schwab says:

    In my >good old days, we had to try to nail the forecasts for flights for a period of one hour prior to and one hour after and one hour after departure and arrival. Our “model” was a stack of yellow teletype paper that we turned into synoptic surface and standard pressure level charts which we analysed and turned into usable maps. Forecasting was somewhat complicated when on a carrier by the ability of the airfield to move a few hundred miles during a forecast period. Somehow, our forecasts turned out quite good.

    1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

      John. That is a great reminder for me and a good kick in the pants for me too. I needed that. I used to use the rows of difax charts when I interned at WILL radio in Champaign, IL. That was a good learning experience. Now there is about 20 times as much info out there on the internet. Too much info at times. I usually get about 20-30 minutes to forecast before the shows, but I also look at things during the show in the morning. Before I did television, I would spend about a good hour on a forecast. Even when I first started I did that too. Now we have to super-prioritize the information. As mentioned though the models have had a more general inconsistency over the last year. I think the weather pattern has stagnated somewhat. Since many of the fronts have stalled out here, it has been tougher than usual. Still, I’ll think about the military forecasters next time I start complaining. It will get me in the right mindset. You take care. Jeremy Wheeler

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