Here Come The Ups And Downs!September 17th, 2012 at 8:45 am by Jeremy Wheeler under Weather
It was a pretty nice weekend in terms of weather. Of course that wasn’t the case with the traffic. Youch! That was a different story. Today we’ll have lots of clouds with a few spotty showers. High pressure is around, but a good band of moisture is pushing right into it from the west. We’ll have surface winds out of the south-southeast at 10-15mph with a few higher gusts:
We’ll have a few spotty showers again tonight. Lows will be warm with many cities bottoming out near 70. Tomorrow we will have a warm and breezy day. A strong cold front will move into western Virginia and western North Carolina by the late afternoon. The moisture and winds will funnel out of the south out ahead of it. The winds will be southerly at 15-20mph with gusts up to 30mph. There will be some passing showers from the morning through the late afternoon. They will move quickly up from the south. If we get some clearing, then we may get some storms early. But I think we’ll have lots of clouds through the day. The bulk of the storms will come through in the evening with the passage of the front.
Our model has the line of storms coming through around 6-9pm.
Some of the overnight models (6Z) are bringing the rain in a bit later. This could possibly limit the severe potential. I’ve seen this weather pattern many times. We can get some strong gusty winds with the line, but typically when the surface lows move north from the Ohio River Valley into Canada, then we don’t get much severe. Sometimes in these scenarios, the models also overestimate the rainfall until last minute. We can update that tomorrow morning.
After the front moves through, then we will really cool down on Wednesday. Highs will be in the low 70s with strong northerly winds. Then we’ll see nice weather form Thursday and Friday with highs again in the 70s.
Nadine is still spinning in the eastern Atlantic. It is a strong tropical storm with 70mph sustained winds. It is expected to move over part of the Azores islands towards Thursday/Friday as a weaker tropical storm. It will probably produce some squally weather as it moves over the region. I don’t think it will shake things up too much though.
For the long term forecast, I think we’ll keep seeing these cool air intrusions from the Midwest/Canada. It will keep giving us some more Fall-like weather. At least for the next couple of weeks. The tropics still have plenty of time to produce a couple more tropical storms or hurricanes. We are usually out of the woods by the 3rd week of October.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler