More Local Storms And Isaac In The GulfAugust 27th, 2012 at 8:28 am by Jeremy Wheeler under Weather
We really had a crazy weekend with the storms and heavy rain in the area. An upper level disturbance sat over us for about 36 hours and created a lot of the storms. I came into work on Saturday to back-up Jeff Edmondson as we had several tornado warnings. Also, the flooding in Newport News was really bad. Henry, my weather watcher in Denbigh said that he had only seen standing water one other time since 1980. That was during hurricane Isabelle. So that is really telling. He says that one of his gauges hit over 9 inches of rain. Don in Toano really needed the rain and got 2.25″. Somehow Norfolk International Airport missed most of the rain with only about a half inch recorded between Saturday and Sunday. Scott in Yorktown had 5.05″ on Saturday and then 0.19″ on Sunday. At least we got some rain up where we needed it. Jan in Reedville had a little over an inch. Pam in Gloucester also had a little over an inch.
The rain over the weekend put down a lot of moisture. So we had patchy ground fog this morning. Especially inland. The upper level low that sat over us over the weekend has weakened today. It will still be enough though to cause some scattered afternoon showers and storms this afternoon. I’m not expecting as much coverage as over the weekend. Still there will be a couple of cities that could see some heavy rain. Highs will be in the mid 80s.
Tomorrow a cold front moves in during the afternoon and should kick off more scattered showers and storms. Highs will rise to the upper 80s ahead of the front with some cooling to the low 80s behind it on Wednesday. We’ll have a little rain early Wednesday, and then some clearing later in the day. Thursday and Friday look dry as well as Saturday. We will have some more rain though around Sunday. That is apt to change depending on how much moisture moves in from the remnants of Isaac next weekend.
Speaking of Isaac. It is still a tropical storm as of this morning. The winds were at 65mph and the pressure was at 990 mb (millibars of pressure). Heavy rainbands were pushing across Florida, and will continue through the afternoon.
Isaac is on a West-Northwest track at 14 mph. The center of the storm has not fully developed into a mature cyclone, but it is getting better organized. There have been storms near the core, but so far it has not really tightened up. A weak upper level low to the west of the storm may be impacting it. It is forecast to gradually strengthen for the next 36 hours up to hurricane status. It may be a strong category 1 or weak category 2 hurricane as it moves onto land somewhere in southeast Louisiana.
This will be early Wednesday. The cone of uncertainty (orange area) is as far east as Biloxi, MS and as far west as Morgan City, Louisiana. So there is still a chance that it won’t make a direct hit on New Orleans. Remember though a lot of the Gulf Coast was impacted by Katrina in 2005, not just New Orleans. The Mississippi Gulf coast was devastated from a direct hit of the storm surge and wind. Most of New Orleans’ problems were from broken levees. Regardless a hurricane anywhere in that region will have a big impact. We’ll see how everyone fares, and we’ll see how Isaac develops over the next couple of days.
The models are in good agreement on the track up until landfall. After that they start to split.
The models move the hurricane inland, weakening it to a tropical storm and then a depression or post-tropical low. The storm is expected to stay far from here, but some of the moisture may work into Hampton Roads along a cool front towards next weekend. The good thing is that the track brings Isaac up into some areas that desperately need rain. My dad lives in Northern Arkansas, and he said it would be great to get the rain, but it’s a little late to help a lot of the vegetation. Of course I’m sure that there are a lot of reservoirs that could use it up that way. Texas could really use it as well.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler