Signs Of An Early Fall?August 17th, 2012 at 8:19 am by Jeremy Wheeler under Weather
Before I talk about the future, I have a quick mention about the past. I talked to the National Weather Service in Wakefield yesterday. They said that the Smithfield wind damage from 2 days ago was likely a microburst. See my previous blog for more about what that means. Alright, onto today…
This morning was great. We had lots of sunshine and lows were in the upper 60s to low 70a. The humidity wasn’t too bad, but it will go up today. We’ll see partly sunny skies and highs in the low 90s. The dew points are in the upper 60s, but they will probably rise to the low 70s. The rain will stay over in western Virginia/North Carolina. However, we may see a stray shower over northeast North Carolina, but only a 10% chance for that.
Tonight we’ll go to mostly cloudy skies with a few showers possible before sunrise. Tomorrow will be very different from today. We’ll have lots of clouds. Showers and storms will increase through the afternoon. We’ll see some scattered strong storms with some isolated severe weather possible. We are under a slight risk for severe tomorrow. The main threat will be strong gusty winds as well as heavy rain in some areas. The cold front will be the focus for the storms. I would give a rainfall forecast, but due the scattered nature of the downpours it would be a moot point. Some areas last Tuesday for instance had 2-3 inches while cities 3-4 miles away had zilch. The cold front will move through late in the day. Depending on the timing of the front, highs will either be in the low-to-mid 80s or in the upper 80s to near 90. I think we’ll see the latter over northeast North Carolina.
The good news about Sunday is that the rain chances have dropped a bit. Now it looks like there will be more breaks in the rain with a 30-40% chance for showers and a few storms. The front will probably drop a bit farther south down towards Hatteras. So that would help to keep things more stable.
Behind that system we’ll have some cooler temperatures. Sunday through Tuesday will see highs in the low 80s. However, there will also be the threat for scattered storms till then as well. Could this cooler weather be a sign of an early Fall? Some temperatures in the Midwest will break record lows in the next 48 hours. The cold air punches will eventually start to push farther south past our region. Let the fronts stall out over South Carolina for a while. I will not mind some low 80s and lows in the 60s for a while.
In the Atlantic tropical storm Gordon actually weakened a bit last night. A weak upper level trough weakened the cloud structure a little. So the National Hurricane Center lowered the wind speed to 65mph down from 70mph last night. Gordon is over 1000 miles west of the Azores islands. It is moving east rather quickly at 18mph. With the current weakening, the forecast intensity has come down. Gordon may only become a hurricane for a few hours in the next couple of days if at all. It is forecast to be near the Azores islands by around Monday.
Finally, the ECSC is coming up next week. The surf does not look too good for it at this point. Even with Gordon in the central Atlantic. Here is a good resource for wave forecasts for the event: surfline Maybe a storm will rev up out there later this week. Until then have a good weekend.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler