Today we are expecting a little break in all of the recent storminess.  The rain chances aren’t zero, but we are only forecasting for a slight chance for a shower or storm.

Today’s Forecast

Tomorrow, however, we will see some scattered strong storms in the afternoon and evening.  This will be well out ahead of the 2 cold fronts that are coming in from the Midwest.  The upper level winds will be fairly strong, and that will help to support storm formation.  The amount of cloud cover tomorrow will be one big part of the storm forecast.  If we get a lot of sunshine, then that will really increase the instability.  We are under a slight risk for severe weather tomorow either way.  The front will move through on Saturday causing more showers and storms.  That’s when the threat for severe will shift to more of a threat for heavy rain and localized flooding.  The good news is that we’ll have some nice cooler weather on Sunday.  The front should pass to our south by then, but some models are showing the possibility of it stalling out near the region.  If that happens then we could see some rain on Sunday as well.  I’m really hoping that doesn’t happen.

Ernesto is on track.  It is a strong tropical storm in the southern Bay of Campeche.  It is moving steadily west at about 16mph.  It will probably strengthen into a hurricane before making landfall once again over the Mexican coast.  It has had more of a southerly track in the last 24 hours, and this has kept it near the shore.

Track of Ernesto

After Ernesto makes landfall again, then the higher terrain will quickly grind the system down to a tropical depression.  However, heavy rain will still be a threat for that part of Mexico.

The chance for development has gone up on that cluster of storms in the east-central Atlantic.  It is a disturbance that is over 1,500 miles east of the Leeward Islands.

Tropical Satellite

This cluster of storms is moving over a region of warm water and lower wind shear.  So there is a high chance that it will be a tropical depression or storm in the next 48 hours.  Once it forms then we’ll track it.

There is one more item to discuss.  NOAA just came out with a statement that the U.S. had the hottest July on Record.  That is impressive as it beats out some of the super-hot July’s from the 1930s.  Locally Norfolk had the 6th warmest July on Record.  And I’ve mentioned before that we probably weren’t higher in the ranking due to the constant amount of humidity that we’ve seen.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler