More Rain, And Que Pasa Ernesto?August 7th, 2012 at 8:03 am by Jeremy Wheeler under Weather
While many folks still somehow missed the rain yesterday, I think there are more and more people singing the “rain-rain go away” song lately. Some area’s ponds are filled to the brim while there are still a few fields that could use a bit more rain. Yesterday there were several clusters of showers that produced over an inch.
My weather watchers Doris on the Lower Eastern Shore, Pam in Gloucester, and Jan in Reedville all had nothing in their rain gauges. Meanwhile Donna in Blackwater (Virginia Beach), and Mike in Whaleyville (Suffolk) had 3/4 of an inch up to an inch. Henry in Denbigh (Newport News) only had a quarter of an inch, but they had about 1-2 inches in Mathews county. There was even a waterspout reported near Manteo NC yesterday. Today the deep moisture is still around and the stationary front is stuck just north of the viewing area. So we’ll see showers and storms continue on and off through the afternoon and early evening.
One difference between today and yesterday is that we’ve already seen some rain this morning. Also we’ll have a lot more cloud cover today. So highs will be in the mid 80s. If the rain keeps up longer, then we could even see some lower 80s. This should keep things pretty stable overall. So We should see less storms than yesterday afternoon. Winds will be light and southwest. Tonight the rain will taper off. By tomorrow the deepest moisture will push east of the area. So we’ll have a little more sunshine and lower rain chances. (70-80% today, 30-40% tomorrow). The rain looks to take a break on Thursday with only a slim chance for a shower or storm. However, I’m starting to watch Friday into Saturday very closely. A viewer pointed out to me that the Storm Prediction Center is highlighting our area already for the possibility of severe weather. Yesterday one of the computer models showed a potent upper level system heading our way with a surface low forming over towards Lynchburg. Today that model (GFS) shows the low a little farther north and broader. It brings the bulk of the storms in later towards the evening and overnight. So if the trend keeps up and the storms arrive later, then that may decrease the potential for severe. Stay tuned! Either way this will have to be watched very closely over the next couple of days as there will some strong upper level winds moving into the region.
Speaking of watching! We are watching the tropics. Florence is no longer a tropical system, but there are still a few clusters of storms near its old center of circulation. So we’ll watch that as it heads west. We are tracking Ernesto which is a healthy tropical storm in the western Caribbean Sea:
Ernesto had 65mph in the latest update. It was moving west-northwest at about 13mph. The pressure was 993 mb (millibars). It will head for northern Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula later today. It has wrapped in some dry air into the center. So it hasn’t strengthened much since last night. However, it is moving over warm water, and there is little wind shear over the storm. So the official forecast is for it to become a weak hurricane before making landfall tonight or early tomorrow.
It should weaken as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. If it survives, then it could re-strengthen for a bit over the Bay of Campeche. Then it would move over central/southern Mexico as a tropical storm. At that point heavy rain would be the main threat for that area.
S0 that’s what’s happening in weather. Busy busy in the weather center. After having a 4 day weekend, I already feel like I need a couple more days off. Sigh!!
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler