I Leave For 2 Days And…..August 6th, 2012 at 9:15 am by Jeremy Wheeler under Weather
(Update: As of 11 am Florence is no longer a tropical system. Rather it is now a remnant are of low pressure).
Well…I leave for 2 days and all of a sudden 2 tropical storms pop-up in the Atlantic. Although one is now a tropical depression. I’ll talk more about those in a bit. First, let’s talk about the local weather. This weekend was pretty nice. A little hot and fairly humid, but there weren’t too many storms. I had a nice night out on the town with my wife for our wedding anniversary. We went to the Virginia Beach Town Center and enjoyed some of the local businesses and foods. It’s also why I was off for two days last week. We did have some quick showers early Sunday, but the rest of the weekend was pretty quiet. Anyway, high temps over the weekend were mostly in the low 90s. Today a cool front will move into our region, and will hold the temps in the 80s. We have a lot of clouds which should also keep the heating down a bit. There wasn’t a lot of rain this morning. There were just a few showers north. However, though the day showers and storms will develop along the cold front, and these will move into Hampton Roads.
I put our rain chances between 60-70%. We could see some strong storms, but we are not in the slight risk for severe weather today. I think heavy rain with a few strong gusts will be the main threats out there. Tonight into tomorrow the front will stall out and try to push back north a bit. This will bring more strong storms to the region. As we get into the mid-week storms should become more isolated, but at least minor rain chances will continue into the weekend. Highs will mostly be in the 80s for the next few days.
Ok, you’ve waited long enough. Let’s talk Tropics…Over the weekend we had 2 tropical systems form. Ernesto and Florence:
Ernesto is by far the stronger of the two systems. It is a tropical storm, and the latest updated had its winds at 50mph. It was located about 180 miles east of the Honduras/Nicaragua border, and it was moving west at 12mph. The storm will probably brush by Honduras. Ernesto may strengthen a bit before making landfall somewhere between Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. It is expected to move over land, and will probably weaken at that point. If it survives, then it could cross back over water in the Bay of Campeche.
Then it would head west and move over mainland Mexico with some heavy rain. I haven’t kept up with rainfall conditions down there. So I don’t know if they need the rain like their neighbors to the north in Texas. There is pretty good agreement with the models on this one with some differences in the track after 36 hours.
Florence is now a tropical depression. It was a tropical storm before the 5am update this morning. Florence has had a lot of wind shear lately, and that has stopped the convection altogether. It is moving over some cool water in the short-term. So the National Hurricane Center says it’s entirely possible for the storm to dissipate. Even by the next update. If it does survive on its westerly track then it will eventually move over warmer waters. Therefore, it could re-intensify. There is a pretty wide split in the models, but that’s a moot point if it dissipates. For now it is a wait-and-see situation. Here is the latest forecast for Florence’s track:
Stay tuned as there could be some interesting updates on both systems.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler