Chance For Strong Storms, Then Great Weather!June 1st, 2012 at 8:39 am by Jeremy Wheeler under Weather
We are looking at some Summer-like conditions for today. Remember it’s not Summer officially yet, even though some feel that Memorial Day is the big kickoff. The heat is on for our area with highs today getting into the upper 80s to low 90s. The heat index will be about 90-95, but the breeze will help a bit with that. Winds will be out of the south increasing to 10-20mph and we’ll see gusts up to 30mph by the late afternoon. There is some much cooler weather in the Midwest that will head towards us tonight in the form of a cold front:
High pressure is still sitting offshore. Also a warm front lifted through this morning. So we will start with some nice and warm weather for the first half of the day. To me it looks like what I call a “late bloomer” pattern where most of the storms don’t arrive until the evening instead of during the day. I am seeing a few showers towards Raleigh/Durham that could skirt our inland counties, but the bulk of the storms are still forecast for late. The models are mostly showing the later storms, but they do hint at some isolated showers and storms popping up during the mid-late afternoon. There is a broad area of low pressure in the Midwest today that will swing a cold front through Tennessee. The low is close enough that it will put a little rotation into the atmosphere.
Lately, we’ve had the moisture…we’ve had the instability. But we haven’t had a lot of upper level support. So we’ve had a lot of storms with heavy rain, but there hasn’t been widespread severe weather over the last couple of weeks. This happens because as the storm rises and the rain forms it gets heavy. Without support the storm drops and cuts off the hot rising air. When you have some upper level winds (shear) it tilts the storm and better separates the rising and sinking air. So the storms can survive longer and become stronger. This evening we’ll have those upper level winds and some broad rotation. So strong wind gusts, large hail, and even isolated tornadoes will be possible across the 2 state region. Our model is in-line with the others. It shows the line of storms beginning to move in around 8/9 o’clock. Note though that the later run of our model does pick up the Raleigh showers and moves them through our western/far inland counties through the afternoon. That would help to stabilize that area a bit if it happens. Here is the model at 9pm.
The storms will last until about 2-3am. Then we’ll just see a few spotty showers until 5am. After that get out your outdoor gear, because we are going to have One Great Weekend…Weekend…weekend. (sorry that was the echo for dramatic effect).
Skies will be partly cloudy both Saturday and Sunday. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. Humidity will be much lower. We may see a sprinkle or two Saturday night, but no big deal. Nice weather will continue into Monday, and then we’ll have another chance for showers and storms on Tuesday.
The patriotic festival is this weekend. Again, hoping the storms hold off until late tonight for that in Virginia Beach. Then it will be great weather down there this weekend and the oceanfront. The rip current risk should drop to low both Saturday and Sunday for the swimmers. Always remember though…low threat is not “no” threat. Have a good one, and stay tuned to any changes in the timing of tonight’s storms.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler