Right off the top I want to emphasize that Beryl is far from us today, and it will barely have any impacts on our region.  The only real impact is that it will keep the threat for rip currents along the Outer Banks of North Carolina at a moderate risk.  Beryl is over 500 miles from Hampton Roads.  It made landfall last night near Jacksonville, Beach Florida.  Estimated winds at the time were around 70mph upon landfall.  Winds have weakened since then.

Beryl On Radar This Morning

 As expected high pressure and weak steering currents have pushed Beryl southwest into Florida and Georgia.  Luckily this area is in an exceptional drought (level 5 out of 5).  So while they may have too much rain-too soon, the long term effect will be beneficial.  An upper level trough and a surface cold front will begin to move out of the Midwest into the southeast by tomorrow.  This will begin to affect Beryl’s motion and start to send it east-northeast.  Since it is over land, the system is expected to weaken to a depression by tonight or early tomorrow.  However, we can’t write it off just yet.  Beryl will keep moving parallel to the southeast coast.  It may move over land for most of the time as a weak system, or it may move back over the ocean for a bit giving it a small boost in strength.  Either way it will approach the coast of North Carolina by late Wednesday into Thursday. 

Latest Track of Beryl

 Notice that Beryl is a minimal tropical storm as it possibly passes south of Hatteras according to the latest official forecast.  I can’t see it strengthening too much as the upper level winds will be working on the system at that time.  It really depends on how soon it moves back over the water.  If it stays over land, then it would likely remain a depression, and may even get absorbed into the front.  The models aren’t in complete agreement, but they do generally send it in a path parallel to the coast. 

Track Forecast Models For Beryl

 Regardless of which of the above tracks it takes, there will be a potential for heavy rain in the region by Wednesday.  In fact the latest forecast from HPC (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) shows about 2-4″ of rain over the southern Outer Banks. 

Rainfall Forecast From HPC (NOAA)

 So this will be something to monitor over the next 2 days. 

For now we have to focus on today’s heat and humidity.  We do usually get some decent warm-ups around here this time of year, but we usually don’t have this much humidity.  Skies started out with partly to mostly cloudy skies, but they will become partly cloudy this afternoon with highs in the upper 80s.  There will be a few 90s inland.  The heat index will be between 90-95.  That will affect folks who are at the Memorial Day ceremonies, especially if they are in full uniform.  Take it easy and drink plenty of fluids if that pertains to you.  Find shade if you can.   Otherwise, if you are not going to a ceremony, then a good place to go will be the beaches to cool off.  There will be a low threat for rip currents at Virginia Beach and the Eastern Shore, but there will be a moderate threat along the Outer Banks.  Possibly a high threat near and south of Hatteras. 

Enjoy the day, and don’t forget why we have this holiday. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

A morning clouds and sprinkles were over the Outer Banks this morning, but as we go throughout our day we all should be dry with partly cloudy skies.

Highs are still going to be above average and near 84 today. Tonight the skies will be clear with a low near 68. This is all happening because Subtropical Storm Beryl is moving south from the steering winds.

Beryl moves South

There will be an outside chance for a isolated shower this afternoon and also tomorrow for the Outer Banks towards Hatteras. The rest of us will be dry from that area of high pressure moving in from the west. The storm is expected to make a pit stop in northern Florida this Memorial Day before turning around and then heading in to our direction.

Beryl's Track

The forecast includes Hampton Roads in its path and the timing is still looking like Wednesday in the afternoon or evening at this point. Note that this forecast can change, especially if the storm stays inland it will weaken, so for now we will keep our eyes on it.

Otherwise its Memorial Day tomorrow!

Warm and Sunny

It will be hot and humid tomorrow, but a good day to be outside honoring our Veterans or simply having a backyard cookout. Either way enjoy the long weekend.

Beach Forecast:

UV: 10 (Very High)

Rip Current Risk: Moderate

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson

I have been watching Subtropical Storm Beryl for most of the morning and I have to say it is an impressive looking storm. Especially this time of year. The good news is that it still is going to continue a path to the Southwest today, but we might see a shower from it before if moves away.

Subtropical Storm Beryl

Beryl as of 8am had winds sustained at 45mph. Its forecasted path will likely impact areas in Florida and Georgia where they have been waiting for any rainfall for awhile.

Storm Moving South

Like I was saying earlier before it moves away we might see a shower or thunderstorm from it for the Outer Banks and for the rest of N.C. today. Tomorrow we all might have an isolated shower in the afternoon. I wouldn’t let it mess up your plans though, many areas won’t even see rain this weekend.

If you going to be heading outside to the beach or one of the many festivals remember to wear that sunscreen (SPF 30+). The UV Index today is Very High.

High UV Index

The water temperature will still be cool so Surfers will still be wearing their wetsuits, I know I’ll be wearing mine when I head out there. Enjoy your Saturday!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson

The Latest Running News and Notes from Southeastern Virginia from Sportswrap, Running reporter, Jon “Flex Leiding

Love Some Video!

Time is short this week, so check our Short Video report:

Have a Safe Memorial Day Weekend! Maybe, we’ll catch you…”On The Run!”

See you next week!

On The Run with Sportswrap Running Reporter Jon “Flex Leiding only on WAVY.com

Happy Friday! We kicked this Memorial Day weekend off right with the sounds of J. Pharaoh & The Manhattan Project.  They performed “Silver Lining” and “House Party” off their ‘Silver Lining’ LP for us and it had everybody jumping the studio.  They host Last Tuesdays at 45 Degrees in Virginia Beach, which is held every last Tuesdays in every month and features the best in music and spoken word that Hampton Roads has to offer.  They will also be performing at Shaggfest June 9 at the Virginia Beach Sportsplex.  I’ll have a preview of Shaggfest next week.

So what’s everybody doing on this unofficial start to the summer?  I wish I had some awesome plans but I’ll be here working.  The news never stops on a holiday.  When I’m not working, I’ll put the headphones on and review some albums this weekend.  A couple to look out for will be Kishi Bashi’s 151a and SICMaN Of Virginia’s Stale As It Ever Was but first up will be Robert Tepper’s New Life Story.   It will be a departure from my usual reviews because it’s not local.  I know, I know..I strive for this blog to be local but this blog reaches out to far ends of the universe..well, to at least San Diego.  Robert is based out of LA and a fan of the blog.  He also had one of the most iconic movie songs EVER, a little song called “No Easy Way Out” that was featured in Rocky IV.  He has become a friend of the blog and even sent out a tweet plugging it,  so I thought I’d return the favor and review his is first record in 16 years.  It’s a great one, so look for it next week.

I hope everybody has an awesome and safe holiday.  I’ll catch up with you next week.  Don’t forget to check out the Live Music Friday photo gallery of J. Pharaoh & The Manhattan Project right here.

Satellite/Radar (Offshore Low?)

 Some of those showers will try to move into North Carolina today giving them a higher chance for rain.  Especially the Outer Banks.  The National Hurricane Center’s latest outlook is for a 70% chance of a tropical depression or storm forming in that cluster of storms within the next 2 days.  That is a high chance and pretty much a done deal if you ask me. 

High Chance For Development (red area)

Here is the good news in all of this.  All of the models have detected this low formation in the last 24 hours.  They are all fairly consistent even though the NAM is more aggressive.  And they all keep it to our south and drift it west into South/North Carolina by about Sunday.  Even the European and Canadian are in-line with this.  So there is a pretty high confidence in the forecast…for a change.  So today the low forms and stays to our south, but it will throw some moisture up this way. 

Today's Forecast MapBy tomorrow the low/depression/storm/whatever could drift a little north, but the models keep the bulk of the rain south of here. Still, that's not great news if you are heading to the Outer Banks for the holiday weekend! Tomorrow's Forecast

Notice that most of the region will be rain free with the 2 highs dominating.  Still… I expect some showers over North Carolina with a spotty shower near the state border.  Also, it could get a bit breezy over the southern Outer Banks as well if this low does form as expected.  Not too strong, but a little breezy. 

By Sunday the high pressure system over the ocean will build south/southwest.  It is expected to kick the low west and send it into South Carolina/Georgia.  Cross your fingers on this one.  This will help to clear out the whole area. 

Low Moves Southwest Sunday

 Even with the clearing though we will still have a lot of heat and humidity around.  That will not go away.  The low should dissipate over Georgia Sunday into Monday.  Again, the models are all fairly consistent with this scenario which is great.  Even the overnight run of the GFS model has stayed consistent.  I mentioned in some of the previous blogs that the NAM model has been too aggressive, but usually is with coastal systems. 

We should have a wonderful Memorial Day.  I’m expecting mostly sunny skies and highs in the 80s.  Enjoy the weekend and stay tuned to the forecast.  Especially if you are heading to the Outer Banks.  Be safe!  Don’t text or drink and drive.  Stay frosty… Oh wait that’s that new Van Halen song. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

…until Friday!  I don’t know about you but it’s been one busy week for me.  I’m looking forward to Friday and to our LMF guest’s J. Pharaoh & The Manhattan Project.  I’m really excited for them to bring their hip-hop/soul/rock sound to the THRS stage.  As always, I’ll talk more about them tomorrow.

So I received a couple of comments regarding my Pawn Shop Lifters review and all were positive but one struck a chord with me.  I mentioned how I was disappointed on how the crowd disappeared when PSL hit the stage and one blog reader explained that he left simply because it was late and he was tired but he loves The Pawn Shop Lifters.  I can understand, believe me, I was tired myself considering I worked at 4a that morning and spent the rest of the day chasing around my three year-old son but I wanted to hear some awesome music from each of the bands.  It dawned on me that a lot of other local shows I’ve been to where there were three or more acts performing, the majority of the crowd left when the last band went on.  I asked a few bands who have headlined shows if they have noticed a drop off in attendance once they hit the stage and they all said yes and some said that they would rather open up the show or play in the middle in order to gain the most eyes and ears.  Definitely interesting.  Maybe we’ll start seeing a trend where the headliner opens the show.

Going to keep it short today and I’ll chat with you tomorrow.  Something to look forward to next week is my second album review.  It’s good one, so stay tuned.

Yesterday afternoon we had some scattered but brief heavy showers.  Then we cleared out for a while.  However, yesterday evening things flared up over North Carolina.  We had several reports of hail in the viewing area.  Here were the reports of severe hail (1″ or greater).  Each green dot is a hail report.  Blue is wind.

Severe Weather Reports (Wed.)

 2 inch hail was reported in Quitsna NC in Bertie county.  That is golf-ball sized hail, and is impressive for even a stormchaser like me.  We didn’t get any photos of that hail, but we did get one photo of the hail in Eure, NC. 

Hail In Eure NC

 Some of the rain continued overnight and lasted through this morning.  Now the rain has let up, and we will see a mix of sun and clouds through midday.  There is still an upper level low sitting over us though.  So we can expect more scattered showers and storms trying to reform later today. 

Today's Forecast Map

It’s important to note that it has been tough to get the rain to the Peninsula and on up to the Northern Neck.  Those folks still need rain.  Meanwhile we are doing pretty good on the Southside, and they do NOT need any rain over northeast North Carolina.  Tomorrow the upper level low will push north.  So we will only have a slight chance for a shower or storm. 

The Memorial Day weekend is looking good….wait for it……..but..  There is an area of low pressure that we will have to watch off the southeast coast.  Before Alberto formed the models were split that there would even be an area of low pressure off the southeast coast.  This time all of the models agree that a weak low will form. 

Since our blog this morning the atmosphere has continued to remain unstable and primed for thunderstorms. We had a few showers and storms move through the Southside from 1-2pm, but the stronger storms are still possible going into this afternoon.

Severe Thunderstorms Watch until 9pm (Captured at 2:45pm)

This watch has been issued for areas in North Carolina until 9pm.  Right now the threats will be large hail, damaging wind gusts up to 70mph, frequent lightning and periods of heavy rainfall. At the time of that captured image (2:45pm) most of the storms are outside of our viewing area but I will be keeping a close eye on these as they could help to develop more storms across Hampton Roads. The areas included in the watch have several severe weather parameters such as CAPE and Lifted Index values high, or favorable for storm development.

Microcast at 5pm

Microcast at 7pm

You can see in both the 5 and 7pm Microcast’s that there will be thunderstorm activity likely across our area. Sometimes these computer models do not do a great job seeing convection (thunderstorms) but when you see indications of green dotted in different places its usually a good sign.

We will keep an eye on Super Doppler 10 and pass along any updates on our homepage or of course on WAVY TV.

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson

While it may have felt like Miami weather yesterday with all of the heat and humidity (a little exaggeration), they actually picked up over 9 inches of rain.  Meanwhile, here we had strong storms and heavy rain that led to about 1-2″ in parts of the region:

Estimated Rain Totals

 Norfolk International Airport only picked up 0.12″ of rain.  Elizabeth City had 0.41″.  With all of the storms, we had some great photos sent in to our station from our viewers.  The first one is of some lightning from around the Greenbrier area in Chesapeake.  Jason Austin sent this one in as he captured it with his webcam:

Lightning In ChesapeakeIt's a really vivid photo, and it shows a couple of either stepped leaders or side strikes towards the top. There was a lot of lightning in the region with one strike actually hitting the Westin in Virginia Beach. Lightning Struck The Westin

 Linda House captured that photo in Virginia Beach.  How lucky is that?  Amazing photo.  The next one isn’t of actual lightning, but it was caused by it.  This tree in Virginia Beach was struck and made a loud noise according to Patrick Anthes.  Notice how the bark is literally stripped off:

Lightning Struck Tree In Virginia Beach

 Finally, I have a panoramic shot of the storms rolling into Old Dominion University yesterday afternoon.  This is a scary, but very cool shot sent in by Michael Shumate:

Dark Cloud Panorama

 Unfortunately, the photo is scrunched and doesn’t show it’s true magnitude, but at least you get a good idea of what he saw.  Thanks to everyone for sending those in to reportit@wavy.com.

Today we have a lot of the same setup. There is a broad upper level low over most of the southeast, a stationary front just to our west, and ample warmth and humidity. 

Today's Forecast Map

 Heavy rain will once again be possible along with more lightning strikes and some small hail.  Hail was reported in Zuni yesterday, and remember that severe hail criteria is 1 inch or larger now.  It is no longer 3/4″.  High temperatures will rise to the low 80s with light southerly winds outside of any storms.  Tomorrow we’ll also see some scattered showers and storms, but hopefully a little less.  The stationary front is supposed to fall apart, and the upper level low should warm a bit.  Between Friday through Sunday we will be mostly dry. High pressure will build into the region. However, the models do hint at a possible shower or two in that time.  In fact, a lot of the models do try to develop an area of low pressure off the southeast coast (GFS keeps it down towards Florida).  They keep it offshore until about Sunday into Monday.  Then it drifts it west.  This feature should stay to our south, but it could throw a little moisture up this way.  Plus, there will be clusters of storms to our north and west.  Bottom line…. The weekend forecast looks dry overall, but the chance for rain is not zero.  So stay tuned!  Ugh.  I’m tired of saying that. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler