So far this morning we’ve only seen scattered light-to-moderate showers. 

Super Doppler 10 This Morning

 The cold front was located just east of the Virginia-West Virginia border.  Ahead of the front moisture continued to stream in from the south/southwest.  Showers will continue to be scattered through the late morning.  There isn’t a lot of lift in the atmosphere expected for the first half of the day.  So I don’t think we’ll see too many thunderstorms just yet. 

Scattered Showers This Morning

 By the afternoon the front will steadily nudge into central Virginia and North Carolina.  It will become the focus for heavier steadier rain along with scattered thunderstorms.  If we get a few breaks in the clouds in the late morning, then we will warm up a little more than expected before the front arrives.  This could allow for some strong/possibly severe storms to develop in the late afternoon into the early evening.  However, if we hold on to the clouds then the threat for strong storms stay low.  Either way I think there will be a threat of heavy rain and ponding on roadways.  Our latest run (6z) of our Future Trak computer model brings the heavier rain and storms in a little later now.  It shows more of the focus between 4pm and 11pm:

Future Trak (5pm)

 It tallies up the forecast rainfall totals to about an inch for most of the area between this morning and the next 24 hours:

Forecast Rain Totals

 Tonight the rain will taper off after midnight.  The front will move through by then.  A few showers will linger into very early Thursday.  Then northwest winds will dry us out.  Skies will be partly cloudy and highs will be in the lower 70s with lower humidity.  Friday will be pretty cool with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s.  At least it will be dry.  Then we’ll have a nice weekend with mostly/partly sunny skies and highs in the low/mid 70s.  I had some rain for Sunday night and Monday, but the latest models only show a very slight chance for rain now during that time. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler