What a nice day so far across Hampton Roads. By noon today temperatures were already in the mid-60s. The skies should remain mostly sunny into this Wednesday afternoon, which should allow our temperatures to top out near 70 degrees.
Temperatures at Noon
Tonight some rain will begin to move in which could bring in a few scattered showers and also keep our temperatures very mild.
Tonight: Scattered Showers
Most of the showers will quickly move off to the east and in fact, we should be clearing out by sunrise tomorrow. By the way, the sunrise is at 6:45am and the sunset is at 5:51pm. That brings in 11 hours and 6 minutes for the length of day. This time of year, we are gaining 2 minutes and 15 seconds each day.
Anyway, back to the forecast…so Thursday we should have another day with a good amount of sunshine, and temperatures even warmer! Highs will be in the low-70s in many areas. A Carbon copy happens on Friday, but a cold front will move in the evening dropping the temperatures from the 70s to near 50 degrees.
The Latest Running News and Notes in Hampton Roads from Sportswrap Running Reporter, Jon “Flex” Leiding
On The Run Again!
Looking Back Before We Go Forward
This past weekend the Tidewater Striders had their Distance series Races, prepping runners training for the Shamrock Half or Full Marathon. The two races through First Landing State Park had a 30K with Fastest Female, Jennifer Jellig looking good in 2:19:38, while Portsmouth’s Ryan Carroll cruised in 1:50:06. In the 20K Ross Montfort claimed the Men’s title in 1:13:14, while the speedy Pamela Lovett was the First Fema1e in 1:28:40.
Williamsburg always seems to have some great runners- maybe its the rolling hills, the nationally recognized college, or maybe the winery. Indoor Track meets are great ways to “take it up” a notch but, Stephen Chantry, 57, took the Thursday Night Races at the New York Armory to a whole new level. The Masters great clocked a 4:47 mile! While impressive, he’s run under 4:50 three times during the Indoor season. Also, the latest issue of Running Times Magazine has him ranked nationally as one of the Top Runners in the age group 55-59 and you understand when I say “Way to Rock, Stephen!”
Stephen Chantry Blazing a 4:47 Mile!
The PTC had recently had their Gloucester 8K with Brian Crow winning the overall race, while Williamsburg Female Masters standout, Connie Glueck continues to shine, being the Ladies’ Champ. We enjoy all the info we get from our Running Clubs in the area- keep ‘em coming!
A Different View!
My utmost respect to all of you who run for a cause. These two ladies will line up at the Boston Marathon, thanks to your support. Good Luck to Ladies with your fundraising efforts. You can help Kate Handley and the Dana Farber Cancer Research group by visiting this link: www.rundfmc.org/faf/donorReg/donorPledge.asp?ievent=484862&lis=1&kntae484862=DED7178AB3844B788519FAE0D3780B2E&supId=107500486.
You can help out Ally Speirs and the Childrens Hospital Boston by checking out this link: http://howtohelp.childrenshospital.org/bostonmarathon/page/Ally-Speirs.htm#.T0FBW7Yg64I.facebook.
Time to Go Racing!
Time to get serious! Less than four weeks to go until the Shamrock Sportsfest weekend but, some great races are available this weekend. Saturday,if you want some cross country action? We’ve got you covered with the Hampton Roads Runners 5K Classic, behind the Virginia Beach Sportsplex. Mettle events brings the action to Virginia Weslyan with the Mud In Your Eye 8K race, while Sunday, Williamsburg is the spot for a challenging run with the Colonial Half Marathon. You actually finish in William & Mary Hall.
You can find out about these races at http://www.meetup.com/HamptonRoadsRunners/events/47558182/, colonialroadrunner.org, mettleevents.com
As always, I appreciate your input. It’s great when someone lets me know I missed something or tells me about a great story idea. It means you are keeping me on my toes. Also, continue sharing our blog with your Running Friends. We are committed to being a great Running friend “On Your Side”. Feel free to leave a comment or story idea. Meantime, keep on rocking! Maybe, I’ll catch you…”On The Run!”
See You On the Run!
On the Run with Sportswrap Running Reporter, Jon “Flex” Leiding
I had a really cool photo sent in to me from Jeff Cahoon yesterday. His car was parked near William and Mary the other day, and it had an unusual snow drift on it. I’ve seen photos of snow rolls before, but not on a car:
A Snow Roll On A Car
Today we will begin to warm up. Light southerly winds and early sunshine will help prop the high temperatures up to the mid 50s. this afternoon. This after starting with lows in the upper 20s. Clouds will increase through the day, and a spotty shower is even possible as high pressure slides away and offshore. Tomorrow afternoon temps will climb further with a stronger southwesterly wind. Highs will be in the low/mid 60s. Then we’ll warm it up into the low 70s by Thursday. Even Friday will still be warm, but a strong cold front will knock the highs back to reality on Saturday. Highs will be in the upper 40s to low 50s for the weekend. Bad timing I know.
We tell you stories like this one on a regular basis, but it’s good to have a reminder every once in a while.
One day last week I took a call from a viewer who received a letter in the mail along with a check stating she won a foreign lottery. When she called she said she knew the check was fake and someone was trying to scam her. She wanted us to get the word out so other viewers wouldn’t fall for the scam. She sent me the letter and I promised her I would post it. Below I’ve scanned the letter, the check and the envelope and highlighted some of the signs that prove this is a scam
First comes the envelope: The first thing I notice about this envelope is it is postmarked in Canada.
The second thing I notice is there is no return address, so it’s not traceable (sneaky scammers!)
Next comes the prize letter: Did you notice the return address on the prize letter is from the United Kingdom? So now, you have a return address on the envelope (above) from Canada and a return address on the letter from the UK (hmmm).
Also the letter states the recipient has won a Mega Lottery in the UK. Did you recently travel to the UK and while you were there enter a lottery? Chances are NO!
The third thing I noticed is that they want you to keep your winnings confidential until your claim has been processed. WHY?!?!?!? Are they trying to keep you quiet so someone doesn’t warn you that it’s a scam and tell you to throw the letter away? (YEP!)
Finally, the check: As with the envelope and the letter above, check the address on the check. This check is written off of a bank account in FL. (So now you have a return address in Canada, one in the UK and one in FL? Okay!)
Then look at the return address: Certified Manufacturing, Inc. A quick Google search tells me the business is a woman-owned small business in Holt, FL that is “an industry leader in electronics manufacturing and laser wire marking for the military and aerospace industries.” (http://www.certifiedmanufacturing.com) C’mon now, do you really think they have time to get involved in a Mega Lottery in the UK? (Umm, no!)
Here’s what you can do. If you receive a letter/check like this one look for the signs. Usually they are very evident and just take a few minutes to figure out. If the letter comes through the mail, you can file a complaint with the Mail Fraud Department . Also if any portion of the mailing is postmarked from Canada, you can contact Phone Busters, the Canadian anti-fraud department and file a complaint with them. Lastly, remember if it seems to good to be true… it is. Now throw the letter away and never look back!
Well some of the area had a good snow last night while the rest of us just missed out. We did have snow during the overnight, but the transition to full snow didn’t materialize for the southside and North Carolina. Here was the view from the radar from early this morning:
Satellite/Radar From Early This Morning
I’ve been saying for a couple of days that this was going to be a tough forecast. The models had the general pattern down right, but the rain/snow cutoff went back and forth a few times. Yesterday afternoon the NAM model update spit out about 5 inches of snow for the metro area with temperatures hovering around freezing. 2 model runs prior and that same model had a rain/snow mix zone that was about 400 miles wide. The other models (GFS/Hi Res WRF/Future Trak) stayed fairly consistent though, and said that there would be a brief changover around midnight. They did focus most of the snow from Williamsburg to Richmond. in the end the cold air never really pushed into the metro area, so a lot of the snow that fell melted last night. In fact the full changeover never really happened over the southside and North Carolina. Some folks on facebook equated this to some forecasts that bust in the past. While I think a few cities were a bust (Mathews and Yorktown for example), overall Don Slater and Mike Goldberg really did a good job with last night’s forecast. I watched them both at 6pm, and they both kept warning that there was a lot of water on the ground, and that a lot of the snow would likely melt. You can see Mike’s blog from last night and his snow forecast here: Old Blog
We did have some good amounts of snow reported by folks. I’ve pieced together a map from the various reports. It’s not exact, but it shows most of the snow totals across the region:
Estimated Snow Totals
I mentioned some of the other models. They did overdo the snow. But check out what our model was showing from last night:
Last Night's Model Run
Notice that it really nailed the lack of snow over the southside and North Carolina. It underdid it up towards Williamsburg and Gloucester, but I’m not exactly sure what time that model started from. So some may have fallen before the model initialized. Here was one photo/report from Gloucester. This photo was sent in from Lou Proper in that area:
Snow In Gloucester
Going forward we have clearing skies expected today as high pressure will build in. The low pressure area is moving away from us while it continues to strengthen. Between the two pressure areas we will have a strong wind which will gust up to 30mph out of the north. This will keep highs in the mid 40s this afternoon despite increasing sunshine.
Today's Forecast Map
We will warm up a bit tomorrow into the 50s, but highs will be in the 60s (maybe even 70s) mid-to-late week. If you’re not from around here, then I’ll tell you… This is typical of our area, and this was a typical Winter event for our area as well. Some folks got spoiled over the last 2 Winters, but I’ve come to expect this as an average Hampton Roads event since I’ve been here over the last 7 years.
This is just a quick update. I’ll put a bigger blog out later this morning. The rain/snow mix is winding down. The cold air never pushed down to the southside and North Carolina. So lots of kids will wake up disappointed this morning there. We did have some accumulations from the Peninsula northward, but I’m still getting in reports and trying to piece together what is on the ground. Any meteorologists that changed their forecast based off of the NAM model yesterday afternoon, will be shell shocked this morning as to the lack of snow in the metro area. Our Future Trak model really did a good job with this one. The wind will be very strong this morning through midday with gusts up to 35mph out of the northeast. It will be very chilly. Again, I’ll write more later. Just wanted to give a quick update.
So far this evening, the Williamsburg area up through Gloucester and the Northern Neck have seen snow. Those areas have briefly mixed with rain, but will go back to snow as a rather significant area of wet snow heads south and east after midnight. We still expect a changeover in Hampton Roads and parts of northeast North Carolina, which could put down a coating to an inch, particularly on grassy surfaces, decks, cars, etc. The road surfaces are rather warm, so expect roads to be wet with a few areas of slush just prior to sunrise. For the most part, temperatures are expected to be above the freezing mark. Here’s the latest forecast for potential overnight snowfall from the Super Doppler 10 Weather Center. While most of Hampton Roads won’t see much accumulation, an inch or two could accumulate across interior Southside and North Carolina, going north through the Peninsula to the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore. The Williamsburg area will likely add to their total, and some places could come in with 3 inches.
We don’t expect any major problems in the morning across Hampton Roads, as road surfaces should be wet with a few areas of slush. The sun will come out and we’ll warm into the 40s. That will mean any snow that is on the ground should quickly melt.
As expected light rainfall is across Hampton Roads this morning. For the day today we will see the rainfall steadily increase. Temperatures are not going to do much else than cool off into the afternoon and evening as the cold air continues to push in from the North.
The timing of when this storm is going to change the rain to snow is expected to occur overnight for many areas:
Northern Neck: 6-8pm
Eastern Shore & Peninsula: 8-Midnight
South-side and North Carolina: Around Midnight
The National Weather Service has also listed a Winter Weather Advisory for our area including areas in Isle of Wright and Hampton Counties and North. Other Areas in Portsmouth, Norfolk, and Chesapeake are not in this advisory. Higher snow totals with the high wind gusts will be the biggest issue for travel tonight and early tomorrow morning. The advisory expires at 5am Monday.
Rain To Snow
The Future Trak model is saying around midnight for the changeover in the downtown area of Norfolk. Snow totals will be influenced greatly by how cold it can get tonight. To get snow you need cold air and a cold surface. The cold air should make it here easily tonight, but the ground is going to remain wet and warm which will decrease the overall accumulations.
If you see the change from yesterday, I did bump up the totals a little bit, but remember areas in Virginia Beach and especially in North Carolina are going to have a difficult time to see any significant accumulations from this event.
In regards to the tidal flooding, the outlook remains the same. High tide this evening around 7:30pm will be about 1 foot higher than average so there is a chance for minor flooding and pooling of water temporarily.
The wind is also going to be strong with this system. We will have winds out of the NE which is similar to a Nor’Easter, except this storm will continue moving out to sea. The wind gusts tonight could be up to 35mph.
By Tomorrow a day with clearing skies and temperatures in the 40s is expected. In addition, the sun will help to melt virtually all of the snow we get tonight across the area so Travel Conditions should be fine, but maybe wet, for Monday in the afternoon and also overnight.
Enjoy the Storm, Drive Safe tonight when the roads will get slippery!
It looks like everything remains on track for the storm that will bring us a mix of rain, sleet and snow through very early Monday morning. Low pressure will track from the Gulf states to along the North Carolina coast tomorrow evening and then quickly off the coast Monday morning. We’ll see a bit of light rain develop during the morning, with increasing rain and wind likely for the afternoon. The rain could be on the heavy side later in the day and through the early evening across Hampton Roads. The big question is will it change to snow, and if so, when? Colder air will be funneling into the Commonwealth from the northwest and we’ll probably see the rain mix with sleet and snow across the Peninsula and Northern Neck later in the afternoon.
A complete changeover to snow is possible across the Northern Neck between 6PM and 10PM, and the Peninsula/Eastern Shore between 8PM and midnight. Hampton Roads and northeast North Carolina will be the last to see the change, probably not until after midnight. Our Future Trak model output (see graphic) for midnight shows the mix/snow area just starting to enter Hampton Roads.
Even when we see the change to snow, it may be hard to accumulate much snow on the ground. This will be due to the heavy rain that precedes it, the warm ground (with puddles/standing water) and air temperatures that will probably be just above freezing.
Nonetheless, the snow may fall for a period of several hours during the wee hours of Monday morning. That means we could see a dusting to an inch across Southside and much of Hampton Roads. Up the Peninsula and to the north, more snow accumulation is possible, since the changeover will take place earlier. Much of the Peninsula (including Hampton and Newport News), the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore may see 1-2 inches by sunrise Monday. There could be locally 3 inches around Williamsburg and across inland portions of the Northern Neck.
We’ll need to be careful early Monday morning, as any wet and slushy spots on area roads could become slippery, as temperatures could lower to near or below the freezing mark. As always, stay tuned for updates!
Hey folks. It’s no secret that I love to blog. However, I’m A. doing it from home on the weekend, and B. Not going to try and step on the other WAVY meteorologist’s toes. Things are looking good for snow chances for a large part of our area. Jeff Edmondson wrote the previous blog and put a good snow totals map on there. I’d say from looking at the most recent model updates that I would add a little bit to it over the Peninsula northward, but we are both on the same page that the higher amounts will be from Williamsburg up to the Northern Neck. The southside and North Carolina are consistently in the region that is too warm for snow up until very late Sunday night. The Eastern Shore will also see a smaller window for snow. At least for Northampton County. North Accomack will probably see more than the metro. There will still be a changeover in these regions, but it will be much sooner from the Franklin to the Peninsula northward. When we forecast for snow we do use something called thicknesses. The warmer a layer of air, the “thicker” it is. There are critical thicknesses that have to be met in order to get snow to fall. Those critical thicknesses will sit between Richmond and Hampton and Gloucester county for a long time. This is what will make for a difficult forecast in that area in terms of amounts. Here is a link that nicely shows those thicknesses: Winter Thicknesses. The models are stretching out the precipitation time a little further now. So the snow may fall all the way up until about 5-6am across Hampton Roads and parts of North Carolina. This could create some problems for the Monday morning commute. Remember even light amounts of snow can cause hangups.
I don’t see too much disagreement in the models. The European is still the lightest, but it’s getting to the time when I use it less to forecast. I’m not going to post a map of snow totals here for the reasons that I mentioned at the start of this blog. I think we are all on the same page that there could be a sharp cutoff to the heavier amounts of snow. Check out the latest update from HPC (A branch of NOAA) in terms of the forecast chance for certain snowfall amounts: HPC
A couple of things before I go. Number one is that the current airmass is very dry. Dew points are in the 30s while temps have climbed into the 60s today. I wonder if this will delay the onset of precipitation tonight and early tomorrow. I also wonder if this will change the temperature forecast a bit. The second thing is that I’ve been thinking how the forecast could possibly bust. While the models don’t disagree much, there is that sharp gradient to the expected snow totals. Also it could stay warm a little longer in the metro, but it will drop eventually. If the northeast winds can drive down some of the colder/drier air even harder, then it could push all of the precipitation south as well. This is a changeup that we should be ready for, and could be what the European is suggesting. It would lead to heavier amounts southward and drier conditions northward with less amounts overall. Mike Goldberg will be in to do his forecast at 6pm. Tune-in to his update as he will have the latest update from our Future Trak model. Remember too that we have about 30 hours to go in the forecast. There are likely to be at least minor changes to the forecast. Have a good weekend.