Snow Forecast Contemplation
February 20th, 2012 at 9:03 am by Jeremy Wheeler under Weather
Well some of the area had a good snow last night while the rest of us just missed out. We did have snow during the overnight, but the transition to full snow didn’t materialize for the southside and North Carolina. Here was the view from the radar from early this morning:
Satellite/Radar From Early This Morning
I’ve been saying for a couple of days that this was going to be a tough forecast. The models had the general pattern down right, but the rain/snow cutoff went back and forth a few times. Yesterday afternoon the NAM model update spit out about 5 inches of snow for the metro area with temperatures hovering around freezing. 2 model runs prior and that same model had a rain/snow mix zone that was about 400 miles wide. The other models (GFS/Hi Res WRF/Future Trak) stayed fairly consistent though, and said that there would be a brief changover around midnight. They did focus most of the snow from Williamsburg to Richmond. in the end the cold air never really pushed into the metro area, so a lot of the snow that fell melted last night. In fact the full changeover never really happened over the southside and North Carolina. Some folks on facebook equated this to some forecasts that bust in the past. While I think a few cities were a bust (Mathews and Yorktown for example), overall Don Slater and Mike Goldberg really did a good job with last night’s forecast. I watched them both at 6pm, and they both kept warning that there was a lot of water on the ground, and that a lot of the snow would likely melt. You can see Mike’s blog from last night and his snow forecast here: Old Blog
We did have some good amounts of snow reported by folks. I’ve pieced together a map from the various reports. It’s not exact, but it shows most of the snow totals across the region:
Estimated Snow Totals
I mentioned some of the other models. They did overdo the snow. But check out what our model was showing from last night:
Last Night's Model Run
Notice that it really nailed the lack of snow over the southside and North Carolina. It underdid it up towards Williamsburg and Gloucester, but I’m not exactly sure what time that model started from. So some may have fallen before the model initialized. Here was one photo/report from Gloucester. This photo was sent in from Lou Proper in that area:
Snow In Gloucester
Going forward we have clearing skies expected today as high pressure will build in. The low pressure area is moving away from us while it continues to strengthen. Between the two pressure areas we will have a strong wind which will gust up to 30mph out of the north. This will keep highs in the mid 40s this afternoon despite increasing sunshine.
Today's Forecast Map
We will warm up a bit tomorrow into the 50s, but highs will be in the 60s (maybe even 70s) mid-to-late week. If you’re not from around here, then I’ll tell you… This is typical of our area, and this was a typical Winter event for our area as well. Some folks got spoiled over the last 2 Winters, but I’ve come to expect this as an average Hampton Roads event since I’ve been here over the last 7 years.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler
WAVY/Fox 43 Meteorologist
The Weather Channel called for ZERO snow for the Southside area all along. Not a dusting. Not an inch. Absolutely nothing. When I want a more accurate forecast, guess I know where to check from now on.
Hmm can’t say that I watched the weather channel for this event. Then again, I’ve been watching them a lot less over the years. Jeremy
Jeremy, you guys were spot on with this storm. There was no bust about it. You guys said all along that most of the area would rain or be mixed with rain for a majority of the storm. I think the line must have been right through the middle of Gloucester (as happens pretty often). There was nothing on the ground at the point, but I had about 3 inches up in the Belroi area of Gloucester. In a winter like this, I’ll take my 3 inches of snow and be happy! I really wish that everyone else could have seen it as well. With temps in 60′s this week, it may be time to start thinking about next winter for more snow!
Thanks for that Jeff. You’re too kind, but I appreciate the comment. You take care.
Jeremy
i dont blame you at all jeremy, this year hasn’t exactly been the most conducive for snowfall, with the yo-yo of temperatures that has been the standard this winter. Pegging a snow forecast down to the square mile is no picnic, with the majority of temps being above freezing this season. your hard work is greatly appreciated, however!
Thanks AJ. Jeremy.
Not true at all Scott. TWC was calling for an inch on the southside. After midnight they updated to no accumilation. But all you had to do was walk outside and realize it was too warm for snow. I will say that TWC is almost ALWAYS wrong with Hampton Roads weather. Leave it up to the guys that know the area. Jeremy and the crew did a great job with this one. Predicting the wheather is not easy. But then again if they would have called for no snow on the southside, and we saw 3 inches I’m sure you would have had a rant about that also…
good job on this storm. i was up in richmond last night around 9 and thay had about 4 inches on the graund it was hard to drive on 64 up that way but as soon as i got to newportnews it was all rain. and the wether channel is not that good thay tell you 2 diffrent things when thay talk but on the local on the 8s thay say something way diffrent. when nbc got there hands on them thay started to go downhill.