It looks like everything remains on track for the storm that will bring us a mix of rain, sleet and snow through very early Monday morning.  Low pressure will track from the Gulf states to along the North Carolina coast tomorrow evening and then quickly off the coast Monday morning.  We’ll see a bit of light rain develop during the morning, with increasing rain and wind likely for the afternoon.  The rain could be on the heavy side later in the day and through the early evening across Hampton Roads.  The big question is will it change to snow, and if so, when?  Colder air will be funneling into the Commonwealth from the northwest and we’ll probably see the rain mix with sleet and snow across the Peninsula and Northern Neck later in the afternoon. 

A complete changeover to snow is possible across the Northern Neck between 6PM and 10PM, and the Peninsula/Eastern Shore between 8PM and midnight.  Hampton Roads and northeast North Carolina will be the last to see the change, probably not until after midnight. Our Future Trak model output (see graphic) for midnight shows the mix/snow area just starting to enter Hampton Roads.

Even when we see the change to snow, it may be hard to accumulate much snow on the ground.  This will be due to the heavy rain that precedes it, the warm ground (with puddles/standing water) and air temperatures that will probably be just above freezing.

Nonetheless, the snow may fall for a period of several hours during the wee hours of Monday morning.  That means we could see a dusting to an inch across Southside and much of Hampton Roads.  Up the Peninsula and to the north, more snow accumulation is possible, since the changeover will take place earlier.  Much of the Peninsula (including Hampton and Newport News), the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore may see 1-2 inches by sunrise Monday.  There could be locally 3 inches around Williamsburg and across inland portions of the Northern Neck.

We’ll need to be careful early Monday morning, as any wet and slushy spots on area roads could become slippery, as temperatures could lower to near or below the freezing mark. As always, stay tuned for updates!

See you on the air,

Mike Goldberg