This is a quick post to re-visit the seasonal forecast put out by NOAA from last November.  Overall they did a pretty good job.  Texas was quite a bit wetter though.  Here’s the link: NOAA forecast.

I don’t like using El Nino/La Nina as much as others in seasonal forecasting.  We had a La Nina (ENSO history) last year and this year, yet we had a huge contrast in weather between the two.  Some folks are wondering if we will get the cold weather back in February.  While it is typically a cold moth, there isn’t anything typical about this Winter for the United States.  I think we are due for a cool down, but I’m thinking a relatively brief one (about a week).  The biggest reason for me is snowpack and the lack of it across most of the U.S.  In fact Eurasian snowpack is gaining attention as a seasonal forecast predictor: Eurasion Snowpack.

Check out some of the above links.  They are interesting. 

We will have warm temps today.  Highs will be in the mid 60s.  Tomorrow highs will be in the upper 60s to near 70.  Record highs are in the upper 70s to low 80s.  The average high is 49.  Winds will be southwesterly through the period.  We’ll see a few showers Wednesday night with a higher chance for rain on Thursday and some slightly cooler temps. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler