No doubt about it. We are looking at a wetter weather pattern in the next 10 days. With a little cold in the mix it’s even possible to see our first snow. Don’t get your hopes up too high just yet though. Let’s start with the short-term, and then we’ll look further out to the extended.
We have quiet weather in place here, but there is a big storm system in the west that has dropped several inches of snow across parts of Kansas, Texas, and Colorado.
The system is slowly moving east, but it is pumping in the warmth and moisture out ahead of it. This will play into our forecast tomorrow. Locally, this morning wasn’t bad in terms of temperatures. We had persistent southerly winds last night, and so temperatures were in the upper 40s to near 50 in many locations. Later today a weak cool front will come in from north of D.C. and drop or hold steady half of the areas temperatures.
The front will stall out right on top of us. So it will hard to pick out exactly where it will stop. I’ve done my best. Highs will be in the 60s south of the front. Tonight the front will already push back to the north as a warm front. This will really set us up for tomorrow. We do expect partly to mostly cloudy skies on Wednesday with scattered showers. High temperatures will be able to reach up to around 70 coming off of a mild start near 50 and using the southerly winds through the day:
Even after the cold front moves through on Thursday we will not cool down that much. In fact that cold front will stall just south of us and will make for a tough weekend forecast.
The long-term models are split as to when an area of low pressure will try to form and move along the front. The timing for this discrepancy couldn’t be worse as it will be between Christmas Eve and Christmas.
All of the models have at least some rain on Friday. Scattered showers with what looks like overruning will take place. The GFS is looking drier lately. Last night’s run (0Z (Z as in Zulu) had heavy rain on Saturday, dry for Sunday, and then a close call on Monday with some snow possible. The overnight run (6Z) now doesn’t have much for Saturday, then dry for Sunday and Monday with precipitation farther offshore on Monday now. The Canadian model has it dry for Saturday and very wet for Sunday. It actually keeps it wet through Wednesday, but no snow here. The European model has a spotty shower on Saturday, very wet on Sunday, and then dry on Monday. All I want is quiet weather on Sunday so that I don’t have to come in to work. It’s hard to tell which way these will trend. Lately a lot of the weather systems coming across the country have moved slower than forecast. So slower and warmer would be a good bet through Saturday. A lot of the systems have also had little rain locally, but they have put down some heavier rain outside of the viewing area. It’s still early and the morning model runs (12z) will be coming out soon. So we’ll have to wait for the models to make up their mind. Despite the discrepancy, the models are definitely throwing up a strong signal for a pattern change.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler