Warm/Cold Roulette

December 22nd, 2011 at 8:13 am by under Weather

We put a lot of effort into forecasting the weather.  It’s especially tough around here with all of the waterways, and also the influence of the Appalachians to our west.  A lot of days we put our stamp of approval on the forecast.  Then, some days you pretty much place your bets and hope for the best.  Today is one of those days.  We have a cold front that will move into Hampton Roads and split the area in half.  North of the front highs will be in the upper 50s.  South of the front highs will be in the low 70s.  The metro area will be the split.  So the Peninsula will likely be cooler than the southside by at least a few degrees.  Here is the afternoon temperature forecast from our computer model “Future Trak”:

Afternoon Forecast Temperatures

With the front splitting the region there could be a few sprinkles in the forecast, but we will not have a good chance for rain like we had yesterday.  There may be a few showers coming in from the southwest late, but probably waiting until the evening.  

Today's Forecast

Tonight the above boundary moves back north as a warm front.  Temperatures will hold pretty steady or even rise overnight.  Then we’ll start warm tomorrow, but temperatures will drop to the low 50s by the afternoon as the cold front from the west finally makes it through.  I know it gets confusing, but that’s what keeps me on my toes.

Tomorrow's Weather

Behind the front we are looking at a cooler and drier Saturday.  So that is good news for travel.  We’ll be cool and dry for most of Christmas day.  We could catch a few late day showers, but the models have been trending drier and drier.  So we may take out the rain chance for late Sunday altogether. 

If you are doing some national travel today, then check your flight.  There has been a lot of snow over Denver.  Plus, there was heavy rain and storms over Houston and Dallas.  These storms will push into Nashville and New Orleans today.

Satellite/Radar

Regional travel should be fine other than a few sprinkles here and there.  Take care and be safe during the holidays.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

3 Responses to “Warm/Cold Roulette”

  1. Mark says:

    Hi Jeremy thanks for the update. Shouldn’t you be a little skeptical about the models trending drier and drier? I would leave at least the chance for showers until maybe 12 hours out and that is if they are still drier. Reason I’m saying this is because last year at this exact time the models were up and down on whether we were going to get very little snow, some snow to heavy snow. 48 hours before Christmas the models squashed the heavy snow call to a little snow and then in 24 hours they all switched and went with the bullish EURO of a snowstorm and of course we all know what happened. 12-14 inches of snow in some locations. By the way I’m not saying we are getting snow I’m talking about the models trending drier. I know all the precip would be rain. Anyways sorry for such a big blog. Just wanted to see what you think. Thanks

    1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

      Hi Mark. I’m with you on that. I’ve kept the showers in for continuity and for that same reason. Plus, the upper level low coming across in the evening will be pretty potent. I’m not ruling out a flurry or two that night because of it. Still only calling for spotty showers late Sunday, but the models are definitely drier than yesterday. Definitely not like last year, but you bring up a good point about the flip flopping. You take it easy and have a good holiday. Jeremy

      1. Mark says:

        Thanks for the reply Jeremy and the update. Last year was definitely odd and so was a couple of years ago when it was supposed to be clear and cold and then the next morning I woke up to flurries and then by the end of the day we had 8 inches of snow. I think it was 2004 when that happened. I can’t remember the month. Ok well I will hope and cross my fingers for a flurry. I just hope enough precip hangs around for the cold air to surge in. I hope you and your family have a Merry Christmas and a happy new year.

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