This weekend will be warm for both days.  We actually have a weak (very weak) cold front moving through this morning.  It created a few scattered showers.  However, this front won’t really cool us down today as winds behind it will be more out of the west.  So highs will still be in the low 60s later today.  Maybe 1 or 2 degrees cooler than yesterday.  So basically, today is still warm.  Tonight will be clear and cool for any New Year’s Eve festivities.  We’ll drop to the mid-upper 40s by the time the ball drops.  Tomorrow we’ll see mostly sunny skies and a strong southwest wind.  This will push the highs into the mid 60s, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some upper 60s.  It will be beautiful, but enjoy it while you can. 

A huge surge of cold air will finally push out of the Arctic.  Last year we had a long period of cold air coming out of Central Canada.  In fact it never seemed to shut off.  This year has been totally the opposite, so we have had a long stretch of warm temperatures.  Change is on the way. 

On Sunday night a cold front will move through as a dry front.  This will really drop the temperatures for Monday.  Highs will be in the mid 40s, but may even drop through the afternoon to the upper 30s.  Lows on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 20s solid.  We may even see some teens Wednesday morning.  High temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will only be in the upper 30s.  This cold air will not last for long though.  The long range models show a quick warming by next Friday.  Highs may be push back up to the 60s.  Wow! 

The long range models also all look dry during this cold period.  The last several runs would occasionally put a spot of wet weather in from time-to-time, but they haven’t been consistent.  Also, at this point they are all in pretty good agreement about the drying. 

Happy New Year

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 

 

I was going to skip a blog today, but I just couldn’t.  There is too much going on in the next 7 days.  Mostly in terms of temperature.   Today will be a decent day. Especially since the winds won’t be as strong as yesterday.  We’ll have a variable wind turning more southerly this afternoon.  We started in  the 20s and 30s, but with the light south winds and sunshine we’ll warm up to the low/mid 50s this afternoon. 

Notice that there is some warmer air (orange area) to our southwest.  This really warm air will push in tomorrow with a stronger southwest wind.  Highs will be in the low 60s.  We’ll take a small dip in temps on Saturday, but it will still be in the upper 50s.  We’ll be back in the low 60s on Sunday for the New Year.  Oh and we’ll see quiet weather for New Year’s Eve by the way. 

The big story update is the cold air for next week.  It looks like it’s coming in a little sooner than forecast and it will be very strong. 

Highs next Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the upper 30s to near 40.  I’ll probably drop them to the mid 30s one of those days if the model runs stay consistent.  This will be our first shot in a long time at seeing lows in the teens.  The models are dry through the period except…..The GFS model does show some snow next Thursday.  However, the models have been a little shifty during this period.  So I won’t buy stock into anything just yet.  Plus, the overall long term trends have been warmer and slower in the models lately.  So we’ll have to keep that in mind.  Especially with the lack of snowpack across the country.  Which is a story in itself.  Now, we have had several offshore systems that have created some close calls over the last month or two.   Eventually, one of these will bring us either wet or white weather.  We’ll monitor. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Yesterday the strong southerly breezes raised the temperatures into the low 60s for much of the region.  It didn’t feel like it with the rain and wind hitting you though.  Most of the region only picked up about a half an inch of rain.  Of course a lot of the rain probably didn’t make it into the rain gauge as the winds blew pretty strong.  A cold front moved through last night and brought in cooler/drier conditions.  Today a second cold front will move through Hampton Roads.  It will be a dry front, but the clouds will increase for a bit. 

Winds will gust up to 35mph out of the west and northwest.  The front will either drop afternoon temps a bit from around 50 to the mid-upper 40s, or it will hold the temperatures steady.  Tonight the winds will settle down, and skies will clear.  This will let the temperatures drop to the upper 20s to around 30.  While this sounds cold, our average low is 34.  So those temperatures are typical for this time of year.  I don’t think we’ve seen any teens yet this late Fall or Winter. 

We’ll warm up on Friday into the upper 50s to near 60.  We’ll stay warm through the weekend with no big weather systems heading for us.  The middle of next week could see some of the coldest air that we’ve seen in a while.  Next Tuesday/Wednesday we may see highs in the 30s.  Definitely low-mid 40s for now, but I may drop the forecast highs by midday. 

The weather look fine for New Year’s Eve.  There will be some snow up in New York, but we’ll have chilly/dry conditions here. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Talk about an identity crisis…. Today’s weather will be wacky to say the least.  Early last night temperatures fell to the low/mid 30s in a lot of locations around Hampton Roads.  Then the temperatures started to rise as clouds rolled in and we picked up some light south winds.  So we started the day in the upper 30s to low 40s.  We already had a few showers move through the area as of the time of this writing.  They were probably caused by overrunning, and I think most of our rain through the early afternoon will be similar. 

 Remember overrunning is when warm/moist air lifts over a cooler/stable air mass.  Warm and moist air is much lighter than cool/dry air.  So this gets lifted, and the lifting motion causes showers…basically.  However, this is not the big show. 

Later this afternoon a strong area of low pressure will move into West Virginia.  Out ahead of it there will be a pretty strong pressure gradient. 

This will create some strong southerly winds that will gust up to 40mph.  This could create big problems with a lot of holiday decorations.  Make sure you have your big blow-up Santas either deflated and locked down or brought inside.  We will pull in warm temperatures from the south.  Highs will be in the low/mid 60s.  The Storm Prediction Center has our area under a slight risk for severe.  I think this is a little overdone.  I’ve seen a lot of events like this in the past.  We have a southwest to northeast moving system, but the center is not even in Virginia.  There is a lot of wind shear sure, but there will be very little instability.  The lowest Lifted Index is 0 on the raw data from the NAM model.  A negative number means unstable.  Positive means stable.  Plus, the latest NAM doesn’t really show the jet streaks over us until after the front moves through.  So I think we’ll see a heck of a lot of wind this evening.  Maybe enough for some severe thunderstorm warnings.  But it’s possible that we won’t have much lightning.  So I think a line of heavy rain with strong winds will push through ahead of the cold front, but I think the threats for lightning, hail, and tornadoes will be much smaller than the threat from straight-lined winds.  If we get a more southeasterly wind at the surface this afternoon, then maybe we could develop some rotation.  This doesn’t look likely at this time. 

Tonight after the front passes we will dry out.  Winds will turn more out of the west.  Lows will be in the low 40s.  We could still have some gusts up to 35mph.

Tomorrow will still be breezy as the low moves into Canada, but high pressure will try to build in from the west.  This will make for another day with a strong pressure gradient.  Highs will be near 50 with mostly/partly sunny skies.

We should see quiet weather into the weekend. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 

Remember last year’s weather?  What a difference a year makes.  At this time a year ago we were quickly stacking up the snow.  It was snowing about 2+ inches per hour in some parts of the area.   We ended up with snow up to 15″ in several cities.  I found some of my old blogs from around that time.  I’ve linked them here for your viewing pleasure.  Notice how the forecast changed dramatically in a short period of time:

2 days before

Christmas Day Blog

Middle Of The Storm

In hindsight I should have used a higher ratio of snow to water.  Computer forecast models spit out the liquid equivalent of the snow that falls which is basically the amount of water you would get if that snow on the ground melted.  I usually use a 10-1 ratio.  So if the model spits out an inch, then you can expect about 10 inches of snow.  This usually serves me well in this area, but I think there was so much energy and moisture in the 2010 system that I should have used a 13-1 ratio.  The National Weather Service has a good summary of the storm with some cool radar shots: NWS report. 

It was one of the top 5 snows of all time in Norfolk.  In 2004 the same thing was happening, and we had a foot of snow inland.  We also had the tsunami of 2004 occur that morning.  I was also working that day.

This year is totally different.  Only about 30% of the country had snow on the ground on Christmas morning.  In fact most of the country will be very warm today.

That temperature forecast is from the GFS model.  I predict we’ll be a little closer to 50 today in Hampton Roads.  We have a large area of high pressure in control of the weather.  So we’ll see plenty of sunshine.  However, we’ll also have a breezy northwest wind which will hold the temps down.  Winds will gust up to 25mph.  Small craft advisories are up for boaters today.

Tonight the winds will turn out of the south.  Temperatures will drop to the 30s, and then will probably rise a bit.  Tomorrow, we’ll pull in some warmth and moisture.  So highs will be in the low 60s with a good chance for rain in the afternoon.  After that we’ll stay dry through the new year. 

Happy Boxing Day everybody.  Have a good one.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

The Latest Running News in Hampton Roads from Sportswrap Running Reporter, Jon “Flex” Leiding

Christmas Eve Rundown

I took a little trip out today. I will apologize in advance for the “Shaky” video but, I was Running, Talking, and Shooting the video at the same time. I guess I should try only doing two things at once! Here’s a quick recap of the year of Running in the “757″. Happy New Year!

Thanks to you all for your support and great comments. I couldn’t do this without you. A big “shout out” to WAVY Sports Director, Bruce Rader for giving me the chance to share great interviews and results from Hampton Roads with you. I’ll catch you in the New Year…“On The Run!”

From All my friends “On The Run”, Happy Holidays!

On The Run with Sportswrap Running Reporter, Jon “Flex” Leiding

T’was the day before Christmas Eve and all through the land, not one person in Hampton Roads had to warm up their hands.  It is an odd sight to see 71 degrees, when it’s 6 in the morning and you have a southerly breeze. So on this afternoon reality will set in.  Temps will start out warm, but they’ll be fallin.  This afternoon temps will fall, to the low/mid 50s and well folks….that’s all. 

Thank you, thank you… Leave your tips at the door.  In all seriousness though it was crazy that temps started this morning in the 70s, and then this afternoon they’ll fall to the low/mid 50s.

We did have some spotty showers along the front this morning.  There were no thunderstorms, but the winds were a bit gusty as the front passed.  The front will keep heading south this afternoon, and will allow for drier air to move in. 

Tonight skies will be partly cloudy with lows falling to the upper 30s.  Tomorrow we’ll see northerly winds at about 8-12mph.  This will be enough to keep the high temperatures in the upper 40s.  We’ll see good travel weather for tomorrow, and the highs will feel more normal.  The average high is 50 for this time of year. 

For Christmas we are still expecting dry conditions for the most part.  The models still show a system that will stay offshore, but it does throw some moisture in our direction.  Plus, there is a pretty potent pocket of upper level energy that will swing through here.  So I’m keeping spotty late day showers in the forecast.  In fact… due to the consistency of the upper level low in the models, I think we could sneak a few flurries in on Sunday night.  It’s an outside chance, but it’s the closest thing we would see to a white Christmas this year.  So keep your fingers crossed if you are a snow lover.  A few flurries would be nice to see, and it wouldn’t cause any problems as it would melt on contact.  The models show another attempt at a coastal system between Tuesday and Wednesday.  They are once again in disagreement though.  So we’ll have to watch the updates.  Hope you have a safe travel today.  Most of the big hubs are dry in the forecast. 

Have safe travels and a happy holidays everybody.  I’ll be in tomorrow morning to do the weather with David Culver.  Hopefully, I can get a better idea about those possible flurries. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

We put a lot of effort into forecasting the weather.  It’s especially tough around here with all of the waterways, and also the influence of the Appalachians to our west.  A lot of days we put our stamp of approval on the forecast.  Then, some days you pretty much place your bets and hope for the best.  Today is one of those days.  We have a cold front that will move into Hampton Roads and split the area in half.  North of the front highs will be in the upper 50s.  South of the front highs will be in the low 70s.  The metro area will be the split.  So the Peninsula will likely be cooler than the southside by at least a few degrees.  Here is the afternoon temperature forecast from our computer model “Future Trak”:

With the front splitting the region there could be a few sprinkles in the forecast, but we will not have a good chance for rain like we had yesterday.  There may be a few showers coming in from the southwest late, but probably waiting until the evening.  

Tonight the above boundary moves back north as a warm front.  Temperatures will hold pretty steady or even rise overnight.  Then we’ll start warm tomorrow, but temperatures will drop to the low 50s by the afternoon as the cold front from the west finally makes it through.  I know it gets confusing, but that’s what keeps me on my toes.

Behind the front we are looking at a cooler and drier Saturday.  So that is good news for travel.  We’ll be cool and dry for most of Christmas day.  We could catch a few late day showers, but the models have been trending drier and drier.  So we may take out the rain chance for late Sunday altogether. 

If you are doing some national travel today, then check your flight.  There has been a lot of snow over Denver.  Plus, there was heavy rain and storms over Houston and Dallas.  These storms will push into Nashville and New Orleans today.

Regional travel should be fine other than a few sprinkles here and there.  Take care and be safe during the holidays.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Some folks are asking… “When the cold air will arrive?  When will it snow?  When is the official start to Winter?”  All good questions.  I’ll start with the easiest one.  The first day of Winter is December 22nd at 12:30am.  So that is the first day.  However, due to a technicality it missed being the first full day by a half an hour.  So the first full day will be the 23rd.  Again…technically.

The cold air will not arrive today.  In fact we may tie the record high this afternoon.  We’re going for highs near 70, but the record is 71 degrees set back in 1956.  So we can easily tie or break that record.

  I wrote a blog back in late October mentioning that my gut said it would be warmer this Winter (relatively speaking).  So far that has definitely panned out.  I do however, think we’ll get a good 3-5 week stretch of non-stop cold like we did in either the Winter of 05′ or 04′.  There is plenty of cold air up in Canada.  It just hasn’t come down through here yet.  It will probably come down in the couple of weeks following Christmas.  Then we’ll get some snow potential, but I still think we will be more likely to see clipper systems which are usually drier systems. 

So now on to the last question: Will we see a white Christmas?  The short and easy answer is no.  The odds in any given year are low anyway.  The National Weather Service has a section in their climate page with the odds of snow on the ground on Christmas morning.  A trace of snow has an 11% chance.  An inch of snow or more has a 5% chance.  This year the temperatures are just too warm.  Maybe in Virginia, but not in Hampton Roads as there will be some precipitation around.

The weekend forecast has changed a little bit.  The models are no longer completely disagreeing.  So the general idea is for rain on Friday with highs in the low 60s.  Then I’ve taken out the rain for Saturday (Christmas Eve).  All of the models now agree on this.  On Christmas day I do still have a chance for rain.  The European model has some spotty showers, but the GFS  (American long range model) does bring in rain that day.  Upon closer inspection.  I noticed that the GFS (overnight run) does try to produce a little melting snow from the Middle Peninsula northward.  Even if it did snow though, it would changeover to a rain/snow/sleet mix by late morning.  The Canadian model has really changed.  It had a lot of rain for Sunday in yesterday’s run.  Today it keeps the whole weekend dry. 

So again, putting these together I think showers for early Friday.  No rain on Saturday, and scattered showers forming late Sunday.  We’ll keep an eye out for that mix potential on the GFS in further updates.  With the models still in some disagreement, stay tuned for any quick changeups.  I think the trend is right, but some of the timing may change. 

Be careful if you are travelling today or tonight.  Lots of wet weather across the area. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

The Latest Running News in Hampton Roads from Sportswrap Running Reporter, Jon “Flex” Leiding

Hitch up the Sleigh- Let’s Go!

It’s been a busy time of the year for us all! Whether it’s Running, or working, time can be our enemy. That said, check out a brief rundown of some of the action in the “757!”

More Races, Please!

With all the seasonal Races, it’s time to “candy cane” up! First the Seighbell 5k in Williamsburg went to Adam Otstot, crushing the course with a “Frosty” 15:58. Karen Terry, who we’ve mentioned all year, took over thirty seconds off the Female Course record, posting a 18:22 for the 3.1 miles. On the other side of the water, the Santa Claus Shuffle went “in the big red bag” for Portsmouth’s Ryan Carroll with a 16:45. Another of our Friends On the Run, Pamela Lovett outpaced the Womens field, winning in 19:42. Ryan wasted no time this past weekend, “dashing away” with the Jingle Jog 5K title in 15:40, while eighteen year old Hannah Gray was first to the line for the Ladies in 19:44. Those of you lucky enough to get in races this holiday season, my hat’s off to you! I can’t forget the Langley Ten Miler, so here’s to Adam Pegues, a Winner in 1:01:20 and Peninsula standout, Carrie Wentzel, wearing the Women’s crown in 1:16:37.

Going Off Road!

This past weekend, the Seashore Nature Trail 50K was good to Billy Edwards, who won the 31 mile event in 3:39:22. The Masters title went to good friend of the blog, Steve Speirs, fresh off his Cayman Island Marathon race with a strong 3:54:31. Jennifer Jelig was the Women’s Masters winner, while Virginia Beach’s Anne Spillane bested the Ladies in 3:55:57. This event at First Landing has been a great race to bring the season to a close. A big “Thanks” to legendary Running friend, Mel Williams for getting this started.

Another Wild run was the Spartyka Warrior Challenge the previous week. With obstacles all over the run, including a gas mask, Elizabeth Campos was the Women’s Champion, while M. Slade Stratton was the Overall Winner. a Big “shoutout” to Tino D. for hooking me up with the info!

With the weather in Hampton Roads cooling off, many of you have hit the streets elsewhere. Miami’s always fun, especially if you took on the Latin Music Rock ‘n’ Roll Miami Beach Half Marathon. Another tropical spot was popular as some of you ran the Honolulu Marathon. Congrats, wherever you get your great runs!

Feedback and More!

I can’t begin to acknowledge all the kind words and encouragement this past year. I could take up a whole page and not even get to everybody. It has all seemed like a blur. A special “Thank You” to WAVY TV & FOX 43 Sports Director, Bruce Rader for giving me the green light. I’ll keep trying to “Raise the Bar” each time out.

With the Running season coming to a close, I’ll post a “quickee” before the New Year hits. It all starts again soon. For all of you who’ve passed on info about races, places, and new running faces, my sincerest appreciation. Running is a journey, no matter where you finish. The joy and elation of finishing something you’ve worked hard to achieve is priceless. Hold on to that feeling- it will always be yours.

Happy Holidays! Maybe I’ll catch you soon…”On The Run!”

On The Run with Jon “Flex” Leiding – All the Latest running news and notes In Hampton Roads on WAVY.com