We are back to some active weather across the area. The system that is going to affect us will NOT hit us directly, but rather a glancing blow will cause a few problems. We have a weak area of low pressure that was recently near the Raleigh/Durham area. Even though it was weak, it still had enough moisture to produce showers in our region. This was how Super Doppler 10 looked this morning at 6:30am:
Rain will taper off this afternoon and focus more over North Carolina. We could see a half an inch over southeast Virginia. 1-2 inches are possible over northeast North Carolina. I don’t expect thunderstorms except for a few isolated ones over North Carolina. So rain shouldn’t be too much of an issue with this system as the low moves East/southeast.
The low itself will not cause the wind to pick up tonight. Rather the high pressure that builds in from the west will create a tight pressure gradient (difference in pressure over a certain distance) as the low moves offshore. The low will get a little stronger, but not too much. And it won’t strengthen until it moves well offshore. This will pick up the winds. This transition will take place from late tonight into tomorrow:
Wind advisories are posted for tonight and tomorrow for Virginia Beach, Currituck county, and the Outer Banks. The wind will pick up tonight out of the northeast. We’ll have some gusts to 35mph near the Virginia Shores. Gusts will be up to 40 over the Outer Banks:
Notice that the winds are not expected to be that strong over the Eastern Shore. Tomorrow the winds will still be gusting to 35mph near the Virginia Shore (except for the Eastern Shore), but gusts will rise up to 45mph over the Outer Banks. This will set us up for some tidal flooding.
Tonight we could see some minor tidal flooding (1-1.5ft above normal) over the southern Chesapeake Bay and over the Outer Banks. Tomorrow will be the highest tides during the morning. Tides will run 1-2ft above normal. It could possibly run a little higher than 2 ft. over the Outer Banks. So we could even see some moderate tidal flooding there. Sewell’s Point is forecast to rise up to about 5 ft. Duck, North Carolina is forecast to rise up to just under 6ft. Here’s a link to tide forecasts in the region: Regional Tides
Overwash is possible over coastal North Carolina. Some beach erosion is possible too. This is especially bad news for areas still recovering from Irene. Hopefully, the new bridge will be ok going to Hatteras. We’ll be watching.
After that Sunday looks fine. There will be less wind. High pressure will build in right on top of us. We’ll have a lot of sunshine. Highs will be in the 60. We’ll see quiet weather continue into early next week with some warmer temperatures.
Tip of the day: Don’t forget to turn the clocks back one hour between Saturday night and Sunday morning. It is also a good time to change the batteries in your smoke alarms.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler