Fall Weather & Winter ClimateOctober 21st, 2011 at 7:56 am by Jeremy Wheeler under Weather
We have a pretty quiet forecast for us locally. Lots of sun is expected this weekend. Dry conditions are expected through early next week. Highs will be in the 60s both Saturday and Sunday. Lows will be chilly tonight. We’ll see mid-upper 40s in the metro, but some inland locations will be in the low 40s. There will probably be a few upper 30s in a couple of cities, but I don’t think we’ll see any frost just yet.
NOAA has put out it’s Winter forecast for this year. NOAA forecast. NOAA’s Climate Prediction center makes seasonal forecasts every year. They are a good tool, but should always be taken with a grain of salt. For example I can’t recall a forecast of theirs that deviates too far from persistence. Check out their recent precipitation forecast and compare it to the most recent U.S. Drought Monitor. That does not make it a bad forecast, but again one should use it as more of a guideline than a hard rule. I believe ENSO(El Nino) is a big factor in their forecast, but the North Atlantic Oscillation is also a factor as well as the Arctic Index. If you look at the Arctic Index you’ll note that it went very negative in 09/10′. That’s when we had the first big snow year in a while. Last year it was also negative, but not as much. We had another snowy Winter. I think the last couple of years have followed a late 70s pattern. I think either this year or next year we’ll see a very warm Winter. That is more art-based than science at this point. I wish I had more time to do research.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler